标普+2023年全球信贷展望-65正式版
Global Credit Outlook 2023:No Easy Way Out Dec.1,2022 This report does not constitute a rating action Global Credit Outlook 2023:No Easy Way Out Dec.1,2022 2 Foreword Dear reader,S&P Global Ratings Global Credit Outlook 2023 presents our macroeconomic and credit outlooks for the year ahead,including our base-case forecasts,assumptions,and key risks for what promises to be another challenging period for the global economy and markets.This years theme,No Easy Way Out,looks in detail at the shocks reverberating across economies and markets,and why finding a way through the strains weighing on credit leaves little room for error.Because governments,having piled on debt during the pandemic,largely lack the fiscal capacity to spend their way through this turn in the credit cycle,we expect credit pressures to intensify in the near term.And while we could see a stabilization of financing conditions in the latter half of the year,uncertainties remain high,with a focal point being the Russia-Ukraine war and its implications for energy markets.This report harnesses the power of our regional and global Credit Conditions Committees(CCC),who meet quarterly to review conditions in Asia-Pacific,North America,and Europe as well as the Emerging Markets and globally.These committees define the house base case underpinning our credit ratings,in addition to identifying the key macro credit risks and their potential rating impact in various asset classes.This publication also highlights the deep resources of the broader teams of S&P Global Ratings analysts and the Credit Research&Insights group,as well as their wealth of data and expertise in covering credit markets.Our Top Global Risks detail what could affect our baseline expectations,assessing the risk levels and forward-looking trends in a number of areas.They include the risks that:Tight and volatile financing conditions persist on the back of entrenched inflation,increasingly straining the debt-service capacity of more vulnerable borrowers;A deeper and longer recession than expected in the largest economies further dampens global growth;Persistent input-cost inflation and high energy prices,combined with weakening demand,squeeze corporate profits and weigh on governments fiscal balances;and Geopolitical tensions intensify,roiling markets and eroding business conditions.In parallel,we see increased structural pressure on credit from the physical and transition risks associated with climate change and the energy transition.Aligned with these risks,we answer the pressing Questions That Matter for 2023,collected through our interactions with investors and other market participants.Alexandra Dimitrijevic Global Head of Analytical Research and Development Co-Chair,Global CCC London Gregg Lemos-Stein Chief Analytical Officer,Corporate Ratings Co-Chair,Global CCC New York gregg.lemos- Acknowledgements We would like to thank the many colleagues who have contributed to this report to provide you with S&P Global Ratings essential insights.Special thanks to Ruth Yang,Molly Mintz,Joe Maguire,Yucheng Zheng,Bernadette Stroeder,Tom Lowenstein,Jennie Brookman,Rose Burke,Alison Dunn,Cathy Holcombe,and Alex Ilushik.Global Credit Outlook 2023:No Easy Way Out Dec.1,2022 3 Contents Global Credit Outlook 2023:No Easy Way Out 4 Global Economic Outlook 2023:Surprising Resilience Unlikely To Last 13 Top Global Risks 20 Questions That Matter Looking Forward:After inflation,whats next?21 Emerging Markets:Is a strong dollar a concern?24 Private Credit:How long can private credit remain the safety valve of liquidity?26 Central Banks:Will ECB normalization jeopardize eurozone financial stability?28 Infrastructure:Will high inflation and rising interest rates derail U.S.public infrastructure investment?31 Macro:As global growth slows,why is the right mix of monetary and fiscal policy important?33 China:Will cracks break the economic wall?35 Corporates:Will companies buckle under higher borrowing costs and inflation?37 Emerging Credit Risks:In an extremely dynamic risk environment,how does S&P Global Ratings evaluate emerging risks?39 Energy:Can Europe compete without cheap energy?41 Supply Chains:Will the U.S.-China semiconductor dispute split the chip industry?44 Energy Transition:How has the decarbonization pathway changed as access and affordability move up the energy transition agenda?46 Climate Risk:What are the short-to medium-term costs of climate change?48 Physical Risk:If extreme weather events become the norm,how might individuals,companies,and governments manage the costs?50 Cyber:How will cyber warfare shape credit risk?53 Future Of Money:Will stablecoins and CBDCS become mainstream?55 Regional Credit Conditions North America:Worse Before It Gets Better 57 Europe:Time To Face The Music 59 Asia-Pacific:Still Above Water 61 Emerging Markets:Downturn Exacerbates Risks 63 Global Credit Outlook 2023:No Easy Way Out Dec.1,2022 4 Global Credit Outlook 2023 No Easy Way Out As we look at the global c
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Global Credit Outlook 2023:No Easy Way Out Dec.1,2022 This report does not constitute a rating action Global Credit Outlook 2023:No Easy Way Out Dec.1,2022 2 Foreword Dear reader,S&P Global Ratings Global Credit Outlook 2023 presents our macroeconomic and credit outlooks for the year ahead,including our base-case forecasts,assumptions,and key risks for what promises to be another challenging period for the global economy and markets.This years theme,No Easy Way Out,looks in detail at the shocks reverberating across economies and markets,and why finding a way through the strains weighing on credit leaves little room for error.Because governments,having piled on debt during the pandemic,largely lack the fiscal capacity to spend their way through this turn in the credit cycle,we expect credit pressures to intensify in the near term.And while we could see a stabilization of financing conditions in the latter half of the year,uncertainties remain high,with a focal point being the Russia-Ukraine war and its implications for energy markets.This report harnesses the power of our regional and global Credit Conditions Committees(CCC),who meet quarterly to review conditions in Asia-Pacific,North America,and Europe as well as the Emerging Markets and globally.These committees define the house base case underpinning our credit ratings,in addition to identifying the key macro credit risks and their potential rating impact in various asset classes.This publication also highlights the deep resources of the broader teams of S&P Global Ratings analysts and the Credit Research&Insights group,as well as their wealth of data and expertise in covering credit markets.Our Top Global Risks detail what could affect our baseline expectations,assessing the risk levels and forward-looking trends in a number of areas.They include the risks that:Tight and volatile financing conditions persist on the back of entrenched inflation,increasingly straining the debt-service capacity of more vulnerable borrowers;A deeper and longer recession than expected in the largest economies further dampens global growth;Persistent input-cost inflation and high energy prices,combined with weakening demand,squeeze corporate profits and weigh on governments fiscal balances;and Geopolitical tensions intensify,roiling markets and eroding business conditions.In parallel,we see increased structural pressure on credit from the physical and transition risks associated with climate change and the energy transition.Aligned with these risks,we answer the pressing Questions That Matter for 2023,collected through our interactions with investors and other market participants.Alexandra Dimitrijevic Global Head of Analytical Research and Development Co-Chair,Global CCC London Gregg Lemos-Stein Chief Analytical Officer,Corporate Ratings Co-Chair,Global CCC New York gregg.lemos- Acknowledgements We would like to thank the many colleagues who have contributed to this report to provide you with S&P Global Ratings essential insights.Special thanks to Ruth Yang,Molly Mintz,Joe Maguire,Yucheng Zheng,Bernadette Stroeder,Tom Lowenstein,Jennie Brookman,Rose Burke,Alison Dunn,Cathy Holcombe,and Alex Ilushik.Global Credit Outlook 2023:No Easy Way Out Dec.1,2022 3 Contents Global Credit Outlook 2023:No Easy Way Out 4 Global Economic Outlook 2023:Surprising Resilience Unlikely To Last 13 Top Global Risks 20 Questions That Matter Looking Forward:After inflation,whats next?21 Emerging Markets:Is a strong dollar a concern?24 Private Credit:How long can private credit remain the safety valve of liquidity?26 Central Banks:Will ECB normalization jeopardize eurozone financial stability?28 Infrastructure:Will high inflation and rising interest rates derail U.S.public infrastructure investment?31 Macro:As global growth slows,why is the right mix of monetary and fiscal policy important?33 China:Will cracks break the economic wall?35 Corporates:Will companies buckle under higher borrowing costs and inflation?37 Emerging Credit Risks:In an extremely dynamic risk environment,how does S&P Global Ratings evaluate emerging risks?39 Energy:Can Europe compete without cheap energy?41 Supply Chains:Will the U.S.-China semiconductor dispute split the chip industry?44 Energy Transition:How has the decarbonization pathway changed as access and affordability move up the energy transition agenda?46 Climate Risk:What are the short-to medium-term costs of climate change?48 Physical Risk:If extreme weather events become the norm,how might individuals,companies,and governments manage the costs?50 Cyber:How will cyber warfare shape credit risk?53 Future Of Money:Will stablecoins and CBDCS become mainstream?55 Regional Credit Conditions North America:Worse Before It Gets Better 57 Europe:Time To Face The Music 59 Asia-Pacific:Still Above Water 61 Emerging Markets:Downturn Exacerbates Risks 63 Global Credit Outlook 2023:No Easy Way Out Dec.1,2022 4 Global Credit Outlook 2023 No Easy Way Out As we look at the global c
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