旅游研究的定量方法.ppt

Quantitative Methods for Tourism Quantitative Methods for Tourism Research I: An Overview Research I: An Overview 旅游研究的定量方法旅游研究的定量方法 I I：概览：概览Haiyan SONG 宋海岩School of Hotel the concept of interest closely matches the method used to measure it 效度=测量结果的特征；我们所感兴趣的概念与用来测量它的方法非常匹配–Measurement validity is the fit between conceptual and operational definitions 测度的有效性是指概念与操作性定义间的匹配程度–Validity is more difficult to achieve than reliability 与信度相比，效度更难以达到 •Threats to validity 影响效度的因素–Inappropriate selection of constructs or measure 对测量或概念选择不当–Measurement done with too few measurement variables or in too few contexts (e.g. destination attributes; loyalty) 测度时可测度的变量太少或测度的对象间缺少联系（如目的地特征；忠诚度 ）–Complex/confusing interaction across constructs (e.g. quality of experience and satisfaction 概念间复杂/混乱的相互作用–Operation of experiment/pilot not rigorous 实验/试验的操作不严格Examples of Validity ProblemsExamples of Validity Problems 效度问题举例效度问题举例: :Inappropriate Selection of MeasurementInappropriate Selection of Measurement 测度选择不当测度选择不当Research question: Does cultural distance (CD) affect the demand for tourism in China? 研究问题：文化距离（CD）影响对中国的旅游需求吗？ •Original measurement of CD in cross-cultural psychology and sociology:使用跨文化心理学和社会学对CD做初始测度： – Intellectual autonomy, Egalitarian commitment, Power distance, Long- and short-term orientation, Loyal vs. utilitarian involvement, etc 自主知识产权、平等性、权力距离、长期和短期方向、忠诚性参与VS功 利性参与等 •Original sample: mainly college students初始样本：主要为大学在校生 •Direct application to tourism context 在旅游领域的直接应用: – “Germany and France have the smallest CD to China, while Malaysia and Indonesia are more culturally distant from China. 德国和法国与中国的文化距离最小，而马来西亚与印度尼西亚与中国的 文化距离最大。

Research question: effects of tourism prices on tourism demand研究问题：旅行价格对旅游需求的影响 •Research design 研究设计 – cross-sectional analysis of 160 tourist destinations 对160个旅游目的地的横截面分析•Measurement of tourism prices 旅行价格的测度 – consumer price index (CPI) 消费者价格指数•Finding 结论 – The higher the price, the more the demand for a destination! tourism is a Griffin (inferior) product 价格越高，对于一个目的地的旅游需求越大！  旅游是吉芬（劣 等）产品Examples of Validity Problems Examples of Validity Problems 效度问题举例效度问题举例: :Inappropriate Selection of MeasurementInappropriate Selection of Measurement 测度选择不当测度选择不当Examples of Validity Problems Examples of Validity Problems 效度问题举例效度问题举例: :Confusing Retaliations between constructs Confusing Retaliations between constructs 概念间的混乱关系概念间的混乱关系•Research question: The Effects of Power, Ideology, interest groups and the Government on Tourism Policy 研究问题：权力、意识相态、利益集团 和政府对旅游政策的影响 •Relationships between constructs 概念间的关系 ： –A political system includes three factors: political power, political ideology and interest groups 政治体系包含三个因素：政治权力 、政治意识形态和利益集团 –The political system is the core of the five dimensions of political ideology. 政治体系是政治意识形态五个维度 的核心•Research question: The causal relationships between museum attendance and tourist flows 研究问题：博物馆参观人数与旅客 流量间的因果关系Museum attendants 博物馆参 观者Tourists 游客•Putting Reliability and Validity Together 将信度和效度放在一起 – Reliability is easier to achieve than validity. Reliability is necessary but not sufficient for validity 与效度相比，信度更易达到。

对效度而言，信度是必要非充分的 – A measure can produce the same result over and over but what it measures may not match the definition of the construct (i.e., validity) 测量可以一遍又一遍地得到相同的结果，但它所测量的不一定与研究对 象的定义相匹配（效度） – You can have a reliable measure that is invalid你能得到一个可信而有效的测度Measurement and Measures Measurement and Measures 测度和测量测度和测量: :Reliability and Validity Reliability and Validity 信度和效度信度和效度A Bull’s-Eye = A Perfect Measure 完美的测度是“牛眼”型的Low Reliability and Low Validity 低信度低效度High Reliability but Low Validity 高信度低效度High Reliability and High Validity 高信度高效度 Source：Adapted from Babbie（2004:145）来源：改编自Babbie（2004:145）Research Design Research Design 研究设计研究设计Problem Statement 问题陈述Purpose of the Study 研究目的Exploration 探索Description 描述Hypothesis testing假设检验Types of investigation研究类型Establishing：建立 - Causal relationships因果关系- Correlations 相关关系- Group differences,ranks, etc. 组差异，排序等Extent of researcher Interference 人为干扰的程度Minimal：Studying events asthey normally occur最小：研究对象正常发生Manipulation and/or control and/or simulation 操纵和/或控制和/或刺激Studying setting 研究设定Contrived 人为设定的Noncontrived 非人为设定的Details of study 研究细节Measurement 测度Measurement and measures 测度和测量Operational definition操作性定义Items（measure）指标（测量）Scaling 标度Categorizing 分类Unit of analysis （population to be studies）分析单位 （所研究的总体）Individuals 个人Dyads 二元关系Groups 组Organizations 组织Machin。