
巴黎银行-美股-宏观经济-墨西哥:北美自由贸易区之“墙”.pdf
9页19 January 2018 Macro Matters www.GlobalM Mexico: The NAFTA wall NAFTA faces key dates ahead, but talks seem likely to drag through H2 2018, we think.We’ve made a flowchart with the potential scenarios from day one if the US calls it quits.The decision to undo the deal is not that simple and status quo would remain for a while.After five (and a half) rounds of talks, the North-American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiations between the US, Mexico and Canada have reached a critical point. All the three countries involved agree that, after negotiations hit a wall last year, this sixth round is key for the future of the deal, and have agreed to extend talks by three days – from 21 to 29 January. There are several upcoming key dates to watch (see Table 1). The seventh round, yet to be scheduled, is expected to take place by early March, going by patterns from past negotiations that had an average break of one-and-a-half months. Negotiations will likely continue into H2 2018, if not into next year, in our view. March was previously set as the target deadline for a final deal, according to statements made by all negotiators after the fifth round. But recent developments signal that negotiations would likely wait at least until after the Mexican presidential elections on 1 July. The new Mexican president will take office only on 1 December, and the US mid-term elections take place in November. So, chances are that the NAFTA talks could extend into next year. Besides, negotiations have effectively concluded on only two out of the 30 chapters, with the thornier issues yet to be discussed. Ildefonso Guajardo, Mexico’s chief negotiator has been quoted as saying that around 70% of the discussions are yet to take place, though he has underscored that there was more headway on technical aspects. While delays could mean the continuation of the status quo for now, they also imply that the uncertainty remains. Also, this may exacerbate a nationalist rhetoric in Mexico. Another date to keep in mind is the expiry on 30 June of the “fast-track” authority to negotiate trade deals in the US, the so-called Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). President Trump could easily (and probably will) ask Congress for an extension of TPA (until 2021), which would require a simple majority vote. The deadline for such request is 1 April. With the future of the trade deal far from certain, representatives from sectors that benefit from NAFTA seem to have stepped up their efforts in all three countries. In Mexico, warnings from major business associations and some respected researchers about the potential downside to killing NAFTA seem to have made the Mexican negotiation position more malleable in face of the more contentious issues on the table. Earlier in January, the Mexican head of negotiations admitted to tighter rules of origin and an adapted version of the ‘sunset’ clause (where NAFTA automatically expires after a certain date), renewing his vows to reach a deal by March. The Mexican effort seem coordinated with Canada, where Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland has publicly indicated increased flexibility on the thornier aspects, suggesting Canada remains knit with Mexico on the talks. Opinions from Canadian lobby groups seem mixed, though. Table 1: Coming key dates to watch in the NAFTA negotiations Dec 120122011Feb/MarJan 29ROUND 7An one-and-a- half is the usualDEADLINE: TPA REQUESTROUND 6 CONCLUDESWatch for the Joint statementMX president to be chosenApr 1TPA EXPIRESJun 30Jul 1 Nov 6MEXICO: ELECTIONSUS: ELECTIONSMEXICO: NEW PRESIDENTHas to be submitted to the US CongressUS loses fast Track to trade talksUS Congress to be renewedNationalist rhetoric In MX could accentuateSource: Eurasia, Foreign Policy, BNP Paribas. Author: Marcelo Carvalho Head of Emerging Market Research, Latam @MCarvalhoEcon Luiz Eduardo Peixoto Economist Banco BNP Paribas Brasil SA Key dates to watch in coming weeks… …but trade talks will likely drag into H2, we think NAFTA talks can matter for Mexican elections US TPA mechanism expires in June Sectors that benefit from NAFTA are speaking up 19 January 2018 Macro Matters www.GlobalM Canada’s team of negotiators include representatives from labour unions, which have strongly criticised NAFTA. That gives us the feeling that labour issues, currently under the radar, could still create some noise. Prime Minister Trudeau has suggested in a January interview he will push for a “more progressive” labour chapter (read as more stringent labour rules). It is in the US, however, that private sector efforts to support NAFTA seem strongest. Indeed, a report from the US Chamber of Commerce argues that killing NAFTA could hurt employment in many states across the country, most of them in Republican strongholds. Besides, industry associations have underscored the importance of Canada and Mexico to US production chains, warning about pote。












