The Practical Research on Confidence.doc
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The Practical Research on Confidence-building Measures in East AsiaLiu DanA Proposal fo r a Dissertation to be submittedIn Partial Fulfillment of the RequirementsForThe Degree of Doctor of PhilosophyUniversity of Macao2012ContentsAbstractIntroductionDefinition of Confidence-building measuresThe Evolution of CBMs The Special Environmanet in East Asia for the development and obstacles of CBMsgSummaryLiterature ReviewResearch Questions and HypothesisResearch QuestionsResearch HypothesisMethodologyResearch MethodSources of the documentary data and limitationsTheoretical FrameworkResearch Structure and Chapter ArrangementScheduleBibligraphyAppendixesearch question 和 hypotheses 到底是什么？ 不信任的根源是什么？CBM 在东亚可行吗？主要路径是什么？即使可行，能够解决信任问题吗？能够帮助有关国家克服security dilemma 吗？AbstractIn an anarchic international society, suspicions and misconception can be found everywhere, and the establishment of trust, which is scarce resource especially between powers, has always been a process full of frustration and requiring goodwill and toughness. Thus, it is the important factor whether confidence can be established between countries that decides confrontation or cooperation between them. The higher the level of confidence is, the deeper the level of cooperation between countries will be, and vice versa. Research Questions and HypothesisResearch QuestionsThe following questions will be asked in this study:1. What is the source of distrust among countries in East Asia?2. What are the feasible approaches of CBMs in East Asia?3. What are the respective attitudes towards CBMs among major players in East Asia?4. Will CBMs help to solve the problem of secrutiy dilemma in East Asia?5. What is a more practical approach for China to solve the problem of the aggravating sourrounding security enviroment with the help of CBMs?Research HypothesisIntroductionDefinition of Confidence-building measures1. M. Susan Pederson & Stanley Weeks: 认为广义的建立信任措施可以包括政治、经济和环境的安排，这些措施或许跟安全并无直接的关联，但其间接对整体信任与安全的贡献，却可能超过那些专为促进信任与安全而特别设计的措施。
（M. Susan Pederson, and Stanley Weeks(1995), “A Survey of Confidence and Security Building Measures”, Asia Pacific Confidence and Security Measures(Washington, D.C.: The Center for Strategic and International Studies,), p.82）他们将军事与安全上的建立信任措施有关的各项作为，狭义的定义为“籍增加透明度与可预测性，使得军事意图更加清晰，用以降低意外或误判引发战争的风险” Ibid. p. 84)2. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, Ralph A. Cossa: 与 1.持相同的看法，他定义信任建立措施为“包括正式与非正式方式，采用单边、双边或多边协商途径，用以应付、防止或解决国家间的军事与政治不确定问题” M. Susan Pederson, and Stanley Weeks(1995), “A Survey of Confidence and Security Building Measures”, Asia Pacific Confidence and Security Measures(Washington, D.C.: The Center for Strategic and International Studies,), p.3)3. Jonathan Alford: 将狭义的信任建立措施定义为“促使军事意图透明化的措施” 。
Jonathan Alford(1981), “The Usefulness and Limitations of CBMs”, in William Epstein and Bernard T.)4. 挪威前国防部长 John Jorgen Holst: 对信任建立措施的定义是“加强双方在彼此心智及信念更加确定的种种措施，其主要的作用是增加军事活动的可预测性，使军事活动有一个正常的规范，并可藉此确定双方的意图” John Jorgen Holst(1983, January/February), “Confidence Building Measures: a conceptual framework”, Survival, Vol. 25, No. 1,), p.1 挪威为北欧国家，虽然资源丰富但是人口稀少而海岸线很长，在冷战时期常有苏联的军舰、潜艇及飞机接近甚至侵入其领海及领空，Holst 深知挪威国防的困境，也因此极力地提倡建立信任措施，来作为挪威国防政策的另一项选择依照 Holst的定义来看，信任建立措施的范围是很广泛的，举凡各种外交场合、调停、斡旋、仲裁、谈判等这些方法均属于信任建立措施的范畴。
5. U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs: 将信任建立措施定义为 “国家间协议，以增进公开化、相互了解与沟通，来降低因意外、错估或不良沟通而导致冲突的可能性，和防止授予奇袭、政治恫吓的机会，藉以增进宁静及危机时期的稳定” Arms Control, “Confidence-Building Measures”, (Washington D.C., ,U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Public Affairs, January 1985), p.1. Quoted in John Borawski’ The World of CBMs’, in John Borawsi, Avoiding War in the Nuclear Age, Confidence-Building Measures for Crisis Stability(Boulder, Colorado, Westview Press, 1986), pp. 9-10)6. The Henry Stimson Center 主任 Michael krepon: 认为“信任建立措施是一种工具，它能使相互敌对的国家，运用此工具来降低彼此间的紧张或避免战争的可能，同时亦是派出军事活动中的神秘面，以协助国家区别真实或潜在敌人的意图与威胁，使国家间意图更加透明化，减少彼此间的恐惧感，以保护或提高国家的安全，使其避免遭受危害，但此工具决不能危及国家内部的安全为前提” 。
（Michael Krepon, “Stimson Plays Critical Role in Latest Homeland Security Initiative”, The Henry Stimson Space Center, http://www.stimson.org/cbm/cbmdef.htm）。
