宝特公司财务模型构建与分析报告.pdf

上海交通大学硕士学位论文宝特公司财务模型构建与分析报告姓名：安雅敏申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：徐飞20050228上海交通大学 EMBA 学位论文 宝特公司财务模型构建与分析报告v宝特公司财务模型构建与分析报告摘 要宝特钢铁公司是国内最大的特殊钢生产企业之一产品技术含量在国内处于领先水平通过了 国内外的众多认证目前公司的主要产品为轴承钢棒线材汽车用特钢棒线材不锈钢棒线材模 具钢特种合金高合金钢热轧型材合金板带线材制品特钢银亮材等八大类公司的年产能 位于国内特钢企业前列 但由于宝特公司建厂较早后续设备投资不大生产工艺落后于国际领先水平随着目前公司 的主要客户的产品档次要求不断提高宝特钢铁公司的销售压力较大尤其是在与国外进口中高档 特钢产品的竞争中处于绝对劣势 宝特钢铁公司经营效率偏低公司盈利能力不强特别是产品线偏重中低端竞争能力不强 这与世界特钢行业总体向中高档产品发展技术工艺持续改进的总体趋势不符 近年来宝特钢铁公司将发展目标定位为成为具有世界竞争能力的特钢生产企业为达到这一 战略要求宝特必须制定相应增长型的发展战略在特钢生产的整条价值链上寻求向前向后或自 身的增长机会向前发展 根据对宝特钢铁公司的前后产业链和特钢生产目前所处状况公司选取了特钢技改煤矿投 资汽车配件投资三个主要投资备选项目 本论文根据宝特钢铁公司制定的投资方案建立了财务模型分别对这三个投资备选方案从经营 现金流净现值内部收益率等评价指标进行了分析并对影响特钢产业的关键因素 — — 钢铁价 格原材料价格等进行了敏感性分析 由于宝特钢铁公司的投资决策方向均属于重型生产企业其投资项目产生的项目有效期较长 均为 20 年并且随着投资方案的逐步实施企业生产将经历投资期成熟期两个典型的阶段因 此本模型将采用投资期成熟期两阶段分别对投资方案的经营现金流进行模拟财务模型是利用 Excel 进行搭建的该财务模型分为情境假设表调整指标表业务表和项目收益表 4 类表一共 由 10 张 Excel表单构成 经过财务模型的分析并进行敏感性分析后我们发现针对原材料价格变化这一外部不确定性 因素特钢技改项目占据中高端市场凭借较强的产品定价能力以及有效的成本控制使得抗风险 能力相对较高矿山业务单位成本相对稳定项目收益受产品价格变化影响显著因此矿山项目受 原煤价格下跌风险影响较大抗风险能力较差汽车配件项目处于产业链下游行业处于竞争环 境定价能力较差原材料价格上涨必然导致项目收益受到直接影响因此项目抗风险能力同样较 差总体来看特钢技改项目的平均收益率和风险相对优于其他两个项目上海交通大学 EMBA 学位论文 宝特公司财务模型构建与分析报告vi最后我们建议宝特钢铁公司采取技改方案即进一步挖掘自身潜力增强竞争力将产品线由 中低端向中高端倾斜力争在 2010 年成为市场领先的特钢生产企业并根据技改项目的投资需求 制定了相应的融资计划关键词财务模型模型设计特钢汽车配件矿山上海交通大学 EMBA 学位论文 宝特公司财务模型构建与分析报告viiFINANCIAL MODELING AND STRATEGY ANALYSIS FOR BAOTEABSTRACTBaoTe Steel Company is one of the greatest special steel manufacturers in China. The Company obtained several world-famous certificates, and its annual output is on the top among domestic manufacturers. There are eight categories products of the Company, axletree steel wire, vehicle used steel wire, stainless steel wire, mould steel, special alloy steel, alloy and hot steel rolling normal steel wire and silver white special steel. The Company has operated for many years with no much subsequent capital investment occurred, so the technique cannot achieve the latest international development. This incurred the Company’s products are of inferior position compared with the imported products and cannot satisfy the customers’ enhanced requests. Not only the Company’s operating efficiency but also the profitability is lower than industry average level. Particularly, most products could only achieve low and middle market demand with no competitive advantage, which deviates from industry development orientation. The new business strategy of the Company is developing competitive ability. We consider that the Company should search for the chances of development from the whole value chain, such as forwards and/or backwards integration, or only focus on developing within special steel industry. In accordance with characteristics of the whole value chain and the current situation of the Company, we choose three capital investment projects including technology improvement of special steel, coalmine investment and vehicle accessory investment. We establish financial model and perform sensitive analysis on the key factors of steel industry such as steel price and raw material price, and compare these three investment projects according to the evaluation indicators including operating cash flow, net present value and interior rate of return. Since the Company’s capital investments could operate in a long period, we estimate the whole project period could achieve twenty years which could be separated into two parts: one is investment period and the other is mature period. So the financial model also analyzes cash flow in these two periods individually. The whole financial model includes ten tables, which separates into four parts: estimation of background, key factors list, operation indication and result of project return. According to the analysis result of financial model, we find the rate of return and risk of technology improvement is superior to others due to brief description as follows (1) Technology improvement project is able to take up middle and high level market, it’s price bargain power to customer is high and the effective cost control procedures enhances the Company’s risk resisting ability; (2) The unit cost of coalmine project keeps stable so that the return of project is directly affected by the fluctuation of product price. The risk of decreasing of coal price leads to the risk resisting ability is very weak; and (3) The vehicle accessory project stands on the backward situation of whole value with keen competition. So the price bargain power to customer is very weak. So the variance of raw material directly affects the return of project.上海交通大学 EMBA 学位论文 宝特公司财务模型构建与分析报告viiiFinally we propose the technology improvement project to the Company, i.e. enhancing the technology competition advances and developing products with high ascendant characteristics. Further, we propose finance project according to capital requirement of the technology improvement pr。