第七讲(上-新)-住房特征和消费规律.ppt

第七讲 （上） 住房特征和住房消费规律 The principles of Housing markets,住房需求 The demand for housing,人口(人口统计特征,人口变化趋势) Population (demography, the population trends) 离婚率 Divorce rate 收入（注意家庭结构的变化） Income 可供利用的信贷 Availability of credit 偏好的变化 Changes in taste,住房供给 Housing supply,供给的测算 Evaluation of supply (demolition and destruction, conversion and its effect on supply, new construction ,future supply trends) 住宅是否适用? Is the housing suitable? (What about condition? What about features? What about location? Suitable for whom?),住房特性和住房消费规律 The rules of Housing markets,住房异质性与住房消费偏好 Housing heterogeneity and consuming taste 搬迁成本与消费选择 Moving cost and consuming choice 住房过滤效应及其实证 Filtering effect and examples 中国的情况: 二、三级住房市场(过滤效应的挖掘与应用) China’s situation : filtering between the second and third housing submarket 租房和买房的选择 Choice between owning and renting a house,1 住房的异质性 Heterogeneity,个别性 Specialty 特征的衡量 Measurement of characteristics,对住房质量产生影响的因素 Factors affecting housing quality,住房消费需求——偏好 Choosing a dwelling-preferences,Quiet,Size,,Budget line of low-income household,Budget line of high-income household,异质性及住房消费偏好 Housing heterogeneity and consuming taste,在支付能力准许时，购房家庭会选择具有最优特征组合的住房. Households will buy dwellings with the best features if they can afford them. 假设在某一住房市场上，住宅仅在大小面积和环境安静两方面上存在不同。

上图中显示了在这种情况下三个家庭的不同选择 Suppose dwellings are different only in size and environment.,异质性与住房市场的细分 Housing heterogeneity and submarkets,住房异质性 Housing heterogeneity,家庭偏好 Consuming taste,,,细分市场 Submarkets,2 搬迁成本、收入增长与居住选择 Large moving cost, income growth and dwelling selection,住房消费的另一个特点是高昂的搬迁成本包括经济成本和人文成本 Another characteristic of housing consuming is large moving cost, including economic cost and human cost. 只有当搬家收益大于搬家成本时，家庭才会搬家搬家收益是指在新住房获得更高的价格与住房服务比的机会） Only if moving brings more benefit than cost will households choose to move. (Moving benefits means more opportunity to get higher price-service ratio.),高成本与搬迁选择 High moving cost and choice,Consuming of all other goods,Housing consuming (m2),Budget line I3,Budget line I2,Budget line I1,高成本与搬迁选择 High moving cost and choice,如上图中所示 ：第一，家庭收入小幅度增长时不太可能引起住房消费的变化。

A small increase in income can hardly change housing consuming. 第二，当一个家庭搬迁时，住房消费往往有一个很大的变化 When a household moves, housing consuming usually changes a lot. 例1：同济大学教职工在传统分房时的选择－－－搬迁与否？是否接受分配； 例2：动拆迁家庭的原地回迁－－－“人性化安置”,住房过滤效应 Filtering effect,住房过滤效应的含义：对同一幢（套）住房而言，随着时间的推移，具有以下规律，一是住房提供的服务减少；二是住房的居住者收入减低住房从高收入阶层淘汰，流向低收入阶层 Filtering effect means for a single dwelling , the service it provides and dweller’s income decrease with time. A dwelling will pass from households with higher incomes to households with lower incomes. 例1：曲阳新村由大中型国有企业的干部新村逐渐过滤为工人新村； 例2：同济新村由教授教师为主的新村逐渐过滤为老年退休教师、新白领、研究生的新村；,过滤的两个基于现实的假设前提 Two realistic assumptions,第一，改造老房子比建造新房子成本高，于是高收入家庭腾出老房子； First, it is more costly to upgrade housing than to build new housing; the high cost of upgrading causes the high-income household to vacate its old house. 第二，高收入家庭腾空的旧房子数量足够多，导致其售价低于低收入家庭买新房子的成本。

在相对较低的价格下，老房子对低收入家庭来说带来更高的效用 Second, the supply of leftover housing is large enough that the price is low relative to the cost of new housing. Given the relatively low price, used housing generates a higher utility level for low-income households. 思考：两个假设是否现实？,3 住房过滤效应 The mechanics of filtering,Quality,Size,a High-Income Household,Quality,Size,b Low-Income Household,Budget : 2004 new,Budget : 2004 upgrade,Budget : 1998,Budget : 2004 new,Budget : 1998,Weicher和Thibodeau实证研究结果 Researching results of Weicher and Thibodeaus’,研究表明，住房过滤确实存在，数量上十分明显。

详见教材p67 Research has shown that housing filtering does exist and is quite obvious in quantity. 从长期来看，过滤效应可以减少低质量住房的形成 In the long term, filtering effect will reduce the quantity of low-quality dwellings.,过滤效应与政府的补贴: Filtering effect and subsidies from government,由于住房过滤效应的存在，政府对某一分市场的补贴会对其他分市场产生影响具体内容以后章节讨论) Because of filtering effect, subsidies from government will influence other submarkets.,Subsidize the construction of housing for the poor or the rich?,The filtering model can be used to argue that subsidies to new construction of housing for “rich” people can benefit many others. There are three important caveats to this argument, though. First, there are transaction costs in converting housing from one market to another, not to mention externalities as neighborhoods change their composition over their time. Second, the benefits to lower-income households depends on a fairly rapid turnover of housing; if the filtering process operates only with a substantial lag, then current low-income households may not receive much benefit from current subsidies to housing construction. Third, the existing housing for, say, middle-income people may be poorly located from the perspective of the lower-income people to whom it is supposed to be filtering.,中国的过滤情况:二、三级住房市场关系 Filtering in China: relationship between the second and third grade housing submarket,理论实质：住房过滤 Theory basic is filtering effect. 1998-2003年的情况：过滤发生 From the statistics of 1998 to 2003, it did happen. 2005－2006的情况:过滤受阻 The current situation is filtering is plugged. 对目前政策的市场效应思考:如何促进过滤? How to propel filtering? 2008年下半年：鼓励二手房转让，交易所得税降低，促进转让，促进过滤。