2_Cause&effectanalysis.ppt

Cause And Effect Analysis原因与结果分析Presentation1Page 2Objectives完成本章学习后，学员可以：完成本章学习后，学员可以：Apply Cause and Effect tools to projects 在项目中运用因果工具在项目中运用因果工具Construct a C&E diagram (Fishbone) 构造因果图（鱼骨图）构造因果图（鱼骨图）Create and interpret a C&E matrix 创建与解释一个因果矩阵创建与解释一个因果矩阵Identify process steps or process inputs that critically impact the customer requirements 确定对顾客要求有关键影响的过程步骤与输入确定对顾客要求有关键影响的过程步骤与输入Discuss linkage to other tools (Process Map, FMEA) 讨论与其它工具之间的关系（流程图、讨论与其它工具之间的关系（流程图、FMEA））Page 3Why Use Cause & Effect Analysis?uHelp identify, explore and graphically display, all the possible causes related to a problem or condition to discover its root causes 有助于识别、研究与图示相关问题的所有可能原因，并揭示其根本原因有助于识别、研究与图示相关问题的所有可能原因，并揭示其根本原因–Focus on causes, not symptoms 聚焦于原因，而不是现象聚焦于原因，而不是现象–Focus team on content of problem 集中团队对问题的看法集中团队对问题的看法–Create snapshot of team’s collective knowledge 创建团队集体智慧的结晶创建团队集体智慧的结晶–Create consensus of problem root causes 获取对问题根本原因的一致意见获取对问题根本原因的一致意见–Build support for resulting solutions 对问题的解决提供支持对问题的解决提供支持Page 4What Are C&E Analysis?uThere are two tools for C&E analysis. 对于因果分析主要有两种工具。

The C&E Diagram 因果图 The C&E Matrix 因果矩阵uC&E Diagram helps visualize relationships between several inputs and a given output 因果图用于形象化几个输入变量与一个给定输出间的关系uThe C&E Matrix helps identify and prioritize relationships between several inputs and outputs 因果矩阵用于识别与确定因子对输出影响的优先次序30 - 50 30 - 50 InputsInputs10 - 15 10 - 15 XsXs8 - 10 8 - 10 KPIVsKPIVs4-8 4-8 Key KPIVs Key KPIVs 3-6 Key KPIVs3-6 Key KPIVsCause And Effect Diagram因果图Presentation5Page 6Basic Structure Of The C&E Diagram因果图结构因果图结构Problem/DesiredImprovement问题问题/希望的改善希望的改善Causes 原因原因Effect结果结果/影响影响Main CategoryMeasurements 测量测量 Materials 物料物料 Man 人员人员Environment环境环境 Methods方法方法 Machines 机器机器Page 7Basic Structure - Level 1 CausesLevel 1 CauseProblem/DesiredImprovementCausesEffectMain CategoryMeasurementsMaterialsManEnvironmentMethodsMachinesPage 8Problem/DesiredImprovementCausesEffectLevel 1 CauseLevel 2 CauseMain CategoryMeasurementsMaterialsManEnvironmentMethodsMachinesBasic Structure - Level 2 CausesPage 9Construction Of The DiagramShows various influences on a process to identify probable root causes of problem or defect通过展现对过程的多处影响来确定对问题或缺陷可能的根本原因MethodsMaterialsMachineryManProblem/DesiredImprovementC/N/XccsccnnnnnC = Control FactorN = Noise factorX = Factor for DOEPage 10Industrial ExamplesUse Cause and Effect Diagram to Single Out Variation Sources within the “5M’s + E”ManMethodsMachineMaterialsMeasurementFive Key Sources of VariationEnvironment+Page 11Industrial Examples机人磨擦不良磨擦不良物法线架外套装配操作不当 (C)辅助套修正模不当 (X)来料外壳披锋 (X)内径修正模不当 (X)外壳内径小 (X)磁铁有磁碎 (C)马达装配手势不当 (C)辅助套角度不良 (X)Page 12Business Process ExampleUse Cause and Effect Diagram to Single Out Variation Sources within the “4P’s + M&E”PeopleProceduresPoliciesPlaceMeasurementFive Key Sources of VariationEnvironment+Page 13Schedule Changes EstimatedShip DateChangesPEOPLEENVIRONMENTSUPPLIESPOLICIES & PROCEDURESMEASUREMENTSPLACES Algorithm Anomalies No Delivery ConstraintsBackorder Release LogicCustomer Priority vs. Availability MDC NCSC MDC Ship Confirm Late Back Order Consolidation NCSC Practices Inventory Accuracy Availability OverridesNo StocksOrder Entry Order Cancellations Off Shift Support In Transit Times MDC Practices PC Delays Business Process Example - Estimated Ship Date ChangePage 14C&E Diagram - ExampleDelivery DefectsPEOPLEENVIRONMENTMATERIALSMETHODSMEASUREMENTSMACHINES Maintenance Servers Resources/Shift Ticket Types Times Training Freq of UpdatesExperience Level Postal Service Co. ProfilesTraveler ProfilesTerminals Call Volume SelfsystemsinternetZabar Volume ProcessQueueHolidays Time of Day Phone Service T-1 Lines Credit cardaddressemailComputer Prog PO DamagePO DamageCall RoutingsCarrier Updates Time Zones Comp Downtime Airline Reservation For Delivery DefectsPage 15C&E Diagram - ExampleModular CellOutput <1147ENVIRONMENTMATERIALSET-UPMETHODMANMACHINEimproper/inadequate trainingP.I. non-conformance (C)Skill incompetence (N)"hasty" OJTOperator's carelessness (C)inadequate calibration scheduleInadequate periodic / preventivemaintenance (X)High downtime (N)Merge torque driver bit worn (X)Parts feeding (X)Barcode scanners (N)Temperature (C)Humidity (C)Pressure (C)ID under-sizedSpindle motor (C)presence of foreign particles / burrsSpanner nut (X)thread pitch outthickness outPoor visual inspection on piece parts (C)Manual torqueing of top covers (N)screws dropping offhand-start with torque bitSpider Shim Removal (N)Improper initial set-up of modularcells (N)pulling at an acute angleDid not hold tool firmly downspacers not seated properlyImproper loading of spanner nut,screws on presenter (C)procedures not clearly definedfaster than projected wear & tear rateHigh fallout rate (N)poor machine performance (Cpk)poor attitude Hogging of partsspecs. not clearly definedpoor judgment on need to change (technician)Pushing of pallets alongconveyor (C)"pushing" for targetsline not balancedlayout not stream-linedinsufficient manpowercapacity too tight presence of foreign particles / burrsdo not know what to check (N) = Uncontrolled variables (noise), difficult to hold constant (X) = Variables under experiment / test (C) = Variables, controllable with SOPs Legend :vacuum too low / highPre-loading of parts (C)skill incompetence of technicianmixed bal. shimsspacers/medias/shims/clampslack of maintenancelow resolutionfaulty barcodesno index markingsconnectors pins bentthreads wornmissing washer Base decks (C)Triggering Systemfor M/C down (X)slow responseDelay in returning of shims to PLDSlow Loading of Desiccants (N)individually wrapped (scissors used)Short supply of parts from sub-Assy (N)slow materials supply from MRCmissing labelsheatstake connectors pins bentpresence of scratchesmissing/damagedbreather filter Magnets (C)presence of contaminantschippedline biasness on techniciansNew Operators (N)lack of disciplineimproper/inadequate trainingtool groove too smallair too low / high"O" ring not seated properlyConveyor (N)speed too slowhigh wear and tear of rubber beltingAlignment out (N)presenter positioning(screws & spanner nut)merge toolsretrievers for bal. shims,medias, spacersDaily machine inspection not done (tech) (N)lack of team co-operationunbalanced supply/uneven distribution from Sub-Assyinsufficient manpower"Rushing" (N)unrealistic targetjob-load imbalance Network (C)slow / downLANAgentslow / hangPower supply (C) E-Blocks (C)bent headsillegible s/no. barcodestorn PCC flexinsufficient/no vinyl sterate application on spanner nutFrequent change of P.I. (N)too many training activitieson mod. cellsMod. Cells fallouts (N)Need to rerun twice before sendingto DebugPage 16BrainstormingWhy Use Brainstorming?• A tool for the Team(not individual). 一种团队使用工具（而非个人）一种团队使用工具（而非个人）• A method to generate a lot of ideas. 可以产生大量主意的方法可以产生大量主意的方法• Two persons’ knowledge and ideas are always more than an individual’s 两个人的知识与想法总是优于一个人的两个人的知识与想法总是优于一个人的•Input for other C&E tools 其它因果分析工具的输入其它因果分析工具的输入??????A technique to generate a large number of ideas or possibilities in a relatively short time frame.一种在相当短的时间内产生大一种在相当短的时间内产生大量主意或想法的方法量主意或想法的方法Page 17How to conduct a Brainstorming Session uAgree on and write down the problem statement 对问题陈述达成一致并记下来对问题陈述达成一致并记下来uAllow each team member to contribute – No Criticism! 允许每个团队成员发表看法允许每个团队成员发表看法 – 不加任何评论不加任何评论»In rotation, free flow 顺序发言或轮流自由发言顺序发言或轮流自由发言u List all ideas on Flip chart or use Post-It notes 将所有的想法列在挂图上或使用便条将所有的想法列在挂图上或使用便条u Continue until ideas are exhausted 一直进行，直到再也提不出想法一直进行，直到再也提不出想法u Review list for clarity/duplicates 将各想法清楚分类并记录下来将各想法清楚分类并记录下来, 调整含糊或重复的原因调整含糊或重复的原因.u Use as input for next step in Cause and Effect Process 作为下一步因果分析中的输入作为下一步因果分析中的输入Page 18Catapult Exercise: C&E Diagram uUsing the Process Map created in the last module, construct a C&E DiagramuLabel the causes with a C, N or Xu标示出原因是C, N 或 XuBe prepared to discuss your diagram with the classu准备与团队讨论因果矩阵图Cause And Effect Matrix因果矩阵Presentation19Page 20C&E MatrixuC&E Matrix for complex process/system 因果矩阵用于复杂的过程因果矩阵用于复杂的过程/系统系统–Relates the process inputs to the process outputs 体现过程输入与过程输出之间的关系体现过程输入与过程输出之间的关系•Inputs are rated relative to importance of the ‘big Y’s’ 列出输入对列出输入对“大大Y”的相关重要性的相关重要性•Inputs are rank ordered (Pareto) 输入可分优先次序（帕拉图）输入可分优先次序（帕拉图）–Tool to prioritize improvement efforts 是划分努力方向的工具是划分努力方向的工具•The next tool, the FMEA, will be used to prioritize risks 接下来的工具接下来的工具,FMEA将用于确定风险系数将用于确定风险系数•Process Maps are essential 流程图是基础流程图是基础 Page 21C&E Matrix Steps1. Identify customer requirements (outputs) 确定顾客要求（输出）确定顾客要求（输出）2. Assign priority to each output using a ranking scale 使用风险比例确定每个输出的重要度使用风险比例确定每个输出的重要度3. List all inputs 列出所有输入列出所有输入4. Correlate inputs to outputs using a ranking scale 确定输入与输出间的影响度确定输入与输出间的影响度5. Cross-multiply correlation values with output priorities 交错相乘输入对输出的影响度与输出的重要度交错相乘输入对输出的影响度与输出的重要度6. Add across rows for each process step or input 将每行中的乘积相加将每行中的乘积相加7. Sort inputs by highest total 将输入按得分高低排序将输入按得分高低排序Page 22C&E Matrix FormatRating of Importance to Customer123456789101112131415Process InputsTotal1234567Cause and Effect MatrixProcess Outputs123456Page 23Projector ExampleHow would these inputs be prioritized for data collection and subsequent analysis using a C&E Matrix?如何使用因果矩阵来给下列输入分出收集数据及分析的优先次序InputsOutputsProjector has bright lightProjector is quietCorrect colorsPower OnBulb lifeInstructor TrainingComputer InterfaceProjectorProcess MapPage 24Example: Identify Customer RequirementsRating of Importance to Customer123456789101112131415Process InputsTotal1234567Cause and Effect MatrixProcess OutputsBright LightQuietCorrect ColorPage 25Example: Assign Priority To Each OutputRating of Importance to Customer123456789101112131415Process InputsTotal1234567Cause and Effect MatrixProcess Outputs878Bright LightQuietCorrect ColorPage 26Example: List All InputsBright LightQuietCorrect ColorRating of Importance to Customer123456789101112131415Process InputsTotal1234567Cause and Effect MatrixProcess Outputs878Power onBulb LifeInstructorComputerBright LightQuietCorrect ColorPage 27Scoring ScalesuYou are ready to “correlate” customer requirements to the process input variables 准备将顾客要求与过程输入变量联系起来uAssignment of the scoring takes the most time 在进行评分时会占用太多的时间uTo avoid this, spell out the criteria for each score : 为避免这种情况，参考评分标准如下： Page 28Scoring Scales–0 = No correlation 没有相关性–1 = The process requirement only remotely effects the customer requirement 过程输入与顾客要求只有轻微影响–4 = This input variable has a moderate effect on the customer requirement 输入变量与顾客要求有中等影响–9 = This input variable has a direct and strong effect on the customer requirement 输入变量对顾客要求有直接的强烈的影响Page 29Correlate Inputs To OutputsRating of Importance to Customer123456789101112131415Process InputsTotal1234567Cause and Effect MatrixProcess OutputsBright LightQuietColor CorrectPower onBulb LifeInstructorComputer411611100409878Page 30Cross-Multiply & Add Across ColumnsRating of Importance to Customer123456789101112131415Process InputsTotal1234567Cause and Effect MatrixProcess OutputsPower onBulb LifeInstructorComputer411611100409 4763 8104(4x8) + (1x7) + (1x8) = 47878Bright LightQuietColor CorrectPage 31Sort Inputs By Highest TotalRating of Importance to Customer123456789101112131415Process InputsTotal1234567Cause and Effect MatrixProcess Outputs10463 8 47ComputerBulb LifeInstructorPower On409611411100878Bright LightQuietColor CorrectPage 32Prioritization Of Inputs For Analysis“Computer Interface” is the most important input variablePage 33Narrowing Scope To Improving One CTQRating of Importance to Customer123456789101112131415Process InputsTotal1234567Cause and Effect MatrixProcess Outputs120 14 88ComputerBulb LifePower OnInstructor40961141110010463 8 47878Bright LightQuietColor Correct(4x8) + (6x8) + (4x8) + (1x8) = 120Page 34Relationship To Other ToolsCause & Effect Diagram for Bright LightLow BulbBrightnessMeasurementPeopleMachineMethodsEnvironmentRoomBrightnessInstructionsLight MeterInstructorPower OnComputer SettingsBulbMaterialsInputsOutputsProjector has bright lightProjector is quietColors correctPower OnBulb lifeInstructor TrainingComputer InterfaceProjectorProcess MapInputsOutputsPower OnBulb lifeInstructor TrainingComputer InterfaceProjectorProcess MapRating of Importance to Customer123456789101112131415Process InputsTotal1234567Cause and Effect MatrixProcess Outputs10463 8 47ComputerBulb LifeInstructorPower On41611100409Bright LightQuietColor Correct8 7 81Page 35Relationship To Other Tools执行能力概要执行能力概要列出并评价主要输列出并评价主要输出出FMEA探求主要输出探求主要输出C&E模型模型评价主要输入评价主要输入控制计划概要控制计划概要Page 36Catapult C&E Matrix - Team ExerciseuFor the purposes of this exercise only, list the controllable inputs on the matrix 实验中只需在矩阵中列出可控因子实验中只需在矩阵中列出可控因子uCorrelate the inputs to only two customer requirements, target accuracy and variation 因子只对两个输出有影响，即目标与方差因子只对两个输出有影响，即目标与方差uRemember to rate the outputs according to customer importance 注意以影响顾客重要程度给输出评分注意以影响顾客重要程度给输出评分uCross-multiply the correlation factors against the customer ratings and prioritize the highest rated inputs for investigation 交叉相乘得出对顾客影响度大的输入用于调查交叉相乘得出对顾客影响度大的输入用于调查 uCompare your team results with the other teams 小组间相互对比结果小组间相互对比结果。