英语演讲稿-Hans-Rosling在Ted英语演讲--The-Best-Stats-You've-Ever-Seen未曾见过最牛的数据统计(+双语).doc

英语演讲稿Hans Rosling在Ted英语演讲: The Best Stats You’ve Ever Seen未曾见过最牛的数据统计(+双语) About 10 years ago, I took on the task to teach global development to Swedish undergraduate students. That was after having spent about 20 years together with African institutions studying hunger in Africa, so I was sort of expected to know a little about the world. And I started in our medical university, Karolinska Institute, an undergraduate course called Global Health. But when you get that opportunity, you get a little nervous. I thought, these students coming to us actually have the highest grade you can get in Swedish college systems -- so, I thought, maybe they know everything I’m going to teach them about. So I did a pre-test when they came. And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one: “Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?”大约在十年前， 我担当起 给瑞典大学生讲授全球发展的任务 之前的20年我一直在非洲研究饥饿问题 所以大家以为我对世界有些了解 在我们的卡罗林斯卡医学院 我开设了一门本科生课程“全球健康” 刚开课的时候我还有些紧张 因为来听课的都是瑞典大学的优等生 他们或许早已了解我准备教的内容 于是在第一堂课里，我作了一个小测试 其中有一道题让我受益匪浅 下列5对国家中，哪一个的儿童死亡率高于另一个？And I put them together, so that in each pair of country, one has twice the child mortality of the other. And this means that it’s much bigger a difference than the uncertainty of the data. I won’t put you at a test here, but it’s Turkey, which is highest there, Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa. And these were the results of the Swedish students. I did it so I got the confidence interval, which is pretty narrow, and I got happy, of course: a 1.8 right answer out of five possible. That means that there was a place for a professor of international health -- (Laughter) and for my course.我所选择的配对国家都是 一个的儿童死亡率是另一个的两倍,因为数据差距很大 因此数据本身的不确定性可以忽略不计 今天我不会拿这来考大家 土耳其，波兰，俄罗斯，巴基斯坦和南非 这是瑞典学生的测验结果 让我高兴的是 5题中平均答对的只有1.8题 我这个教授还有这门课 因此都有了存在的必要But one late night, when I was compiling the report I really realized my discovery. I have shown that Swedish top students know statistically significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees. (Laughter) Because the chimpanzee would score half right if I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey. They would be right half of the cases.但后来有天深夜，当我写总结报告的时候 我突然有了新的发现 瑞典大学的优等生们对世界的了解 竟然还不如黑猩猩 （笑声） 因为黑猩猩们至少能蒙对一半 在两个选项旁边各放一根香蕉，就有一半的几率答对。

But the students are not there. The problem for me was not ignorance; it was preconceived ideas.这些优等生们却做不到这不是由于知识缺乏 而是他们先入为主的错误理念I did also an unethical study of the professors of the Karolinska Institute (Laughter) -- that hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine, and they are on par with the chimpanzee there. (Laughter) This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate, because the data of what’s happening in the world and the child health of every country is very well aware.我还把这个测试拿去 给卡罗林斯卡学院的教授们做 （笑声） 他们每年负责颁发诺贝尔医学奖 结果教授们和黑猩猩半斤八两 （笑声） 我意识到很有必要交流一下这个问题 因为多数人并不知道 世界各国的儿童健康的改善We did this software which displays it like this: every bubble here is a country. This country over here is China. This is India. The size of the bubble is the population, and on this axis here I put fertility rate. Because my students, what they said when they looked upon the world, and I asked them, “What do you really think about the world?” Well, I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly. (Laughter) And they said, “The world is still ‘we’ and ‘them.’ And we is Western world and them is Third World.” “And what do you mean with Western world?” I said. “Well, that’s long life and small family, and Third World is short life and large family.”我们作了一个软件，每一个小球代表一个国家 这个是中国，这个是印度 小球的尺寸代表该国的人口，X轴是生育率 我曾问过学生们 如果让你们来审视这个世界 你们的真实想法是什么 其实这些教科书上都是丁丁历险记（带有殖民主义思想的漫画）的人物 （笑声） 学生们回答 世界是由“我们和他们”组成的 “我们”指西方世界 “他们”指第三世界 我又问 “什么是西方世界？” “西方世界寿命长且家庭小； 第三世界寿命短而家庭大。

So this is what I could display here. I put fertility rate here: number of children per woman: one, two, three, four, up to about eight children per woman. We have very good data since 1962 -- 1960 about -- on the size of families in all countries. The error margin is narrow. Here I put life expectancy at birth, from 30 years in some countries up to about 70 years. And 1962, there was really a group of countries here that was industrialized countries, and they had small families and long lives. And these were the developing countries: they had large families and they had relatively short lives. Now what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change. Are the students right? Is it still two types of countries? Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here? Or have they got longer lives and live up there?那么一起来看看 X轴是生育率，每个妇女的育儿数 从每人1，2，3，4胎，到8胎 我们有1962年之后的各国家庭大小的可靠数据 数据误差相当小。

Y轴是平均寿命 从30岁到70岁不等 1962年的时候 的确有一群国家在上面 这些是发达国家，他们家庭小，寿命长 而这些则是发展中国家 他们家庭大，寿命也相对短些 从1962年到今天 世界有什么变化吗？ 我们来看看 学生们正确吗？国家还是分为2类吗? 或者发展中国家的家庭变小（这些小球）移动到了左边? 或者发展中国家人们的寿命变长（这些小球）移动到了上面?Let’s see. We stopped the world then. This is all U.N. statistics that have been available. Here we go. Can you see there? It’s China ther。