价格形态百科-双顶底(2).doc

12、、Double BottomRESULTS SNAPSHOTAppearanceA downward price trend bottoms out, rises, then bottoms again before climbing. Reversal Or ConsolidationShort-term(up to 3 months) bullish reversalFailure Rate64%Failure Rate if waited for breakout3%Average Rise40%, with most likely rise between 20 and 30%.Volume TrendDownward until breakoutThrowbacks68%Percentage meeting predicted price target68%Surprising FindingBottoms closer together show larger gainsSee alsoHead-and-Shoulders Bottoms, Complex; Horn BottomsPerhaps the biggest surprise with double bottoms is the high failure rate at 64%. Only a third of the formations classify as true double bottoms. They are the ones that have prices rising above the confirmation point, which is the highest high between the two lows. The failure rate tumbles to just 3 % if one waits for confirmation. Only those formations with confirmed breakouts are evaluated in this study. 双底形态失败几率高达64%。

只有三分之一可以称为真正的双底它们是价格穿越确认点的，两底之间最高价位确认之后的失败率骤降到3%本书只研究突破确认的双底The average rise is 40% but is tempered by a third of the formations having gains less than 15%. These small rises are balanced by a third of the formations showing gains over 45%. The most likely rise is between 20% and 30%, relatively high for bullish formations. 平均涨幅40%三分之一收益低于15%三分之一超过45%最常见的是20%-30%Throwbacks occur 68% of the time, suggesting it is wise to wait for a throwback and invest once prices turn upward. In some cases, waiting for a throwback can save you from making an unprofitable trade. 68%的情况下会发生回调。

明智的策略师等待回调然后介入A surprising finding is that bottoms closer together outperform those spaced farther apart. The Statistics section of this chapter examines this in more detail. 一个令人惊奇的发现是底部接近的双底表现比疏远的要好TourWhat does a double bottom look like? Figure 12.1 shows a good example of a double bottom. Prices reach a high in mid-March then head lower. For the next 3 months, prices continue down in a steady decline to die low in June. Volume picks up as prices near the low then peg the meter at over 1.1 million shares on June 18, the day prices reach a low of 12.69. From the March high, the stock declines 47% in 3 months. The high volume marks the turning point and the stock moves upward. However, a retest of the low is in store and prices round over and head down again. In late August, prices make another low when the stock drops to 13.06, also on high volume. The day after the low, on a burst of buying enthusiasm, the stock jumps up and reaches the confirmation point in just 2 days. Instead of continuing upward, however, the stock throws back to the breakout point and moves horizontally for just over a week before resuming its move upward. By late January, the stock reaches a high of 26 7/8, again of 75% from the breakout price.双底长什么样？图12.1是一个很典型的双底。

价格在三月中旬形成头部，之后三个月一路下行，在六月止于极低六月18日，价格到达12.69，从三月的最高点算起，三个月内该股下跌了47%高成交量也标志着反转的出现，股价开始上行然后，价格在再次探底前形成又一个头部八月底，价格在13.06跌出另一个低点，伴随着高成交量低点之后，随着疯狂的买入，股价跳升，两天后即冲到确认点然而，在继续爬升前，股价突破后回调，横向运动一周多一月底，该股达到了26 7/8，从确认点算起涨了75%Figure 12.1 shows a double bottom and the gains achieved by such a formation. Are there key elements that make up a double bottom? Yes and a discussion of the key elements follows in the next section. 图12.1展示了双底的形态和其收益双底有什么决定性要素吗？是的，随后的章节中进行讨论Table 12.1Identification Characteristics of Double BottomsCharacteristicDiscussionDownward price trend价格趋势向下Prices trend down (short term) and should not drift below the left bottom. 价格趋势向下(短期)但不会突破左底价位。

Rise between bottoms两底之间价格上升There should be a 10% to 20% rise (or more) between the two bottoms, measured from low to high. Peaks close together tend to be at the lower end of the range. The rise usually looks rounded but can be irregular. 两底之间的反弹高点至少要有10%-20%的涨幅Dual bottoms双底Bottom to bottom price variation is 4% or less. This is not crucial except that the two bottoms should appear near the same price level. 两个底部的价格相差不超过4%不过并非严格规定，但两个底部应该价格接近Bottom distance底部距离Bottoms should be at least a few weeks apart (many consider a month to be the minimum), formed by two separate minor lows (not part of the same consolidation area). Minimum bottom separation is not critical as the best gains come from formations with bottoms about 3 months apart, on average. 两个底部至少应相隔数周Prices rise after right bottom.右底之后价格上升After the second bottom, prices must rise above the confirmation point without first falling below the right bottom low. 在第二个底部形成后，价格必须越过确认点，并且不在跌破右底Bottom volume底部成交量Usually higher on the left bottom than the right. 左底通常比右底成交量高Breakout volume突破成交量Volume usually rises substantially. 成交量通常极大Confirmation point确认点The confirmation point is the highest high between the two bottoms. It confirms that a twin bottom formation is a true double bottom. A breakout occurs when prices rise above the confirmation point. 确认点是两底之间的最高点。

它确认了两个底部的形态是双底价格穿越确认点称为突破Identification GuidelinesNot any two bottoms at the same price level will suffice for a double bottom. Listed in Table 12.1 are a number of guidelines that make correct selection easier.。