AsianCrisis亚洲金融危机英文版.pptx

Asian Financial Crisis目录一.Asian financial crisis 1997 981.数据2.概况3.原因4.影响二.投机者-索罗斯三.IMF的角色四.经验教训1997 亚洲金融风暴概况之亚洲金融风暴概况之 危机原因危机原因新马泰日韩等国都新马泰日韩等国都为外向型经济的国为外向型经济的国家他们对世界市家他们对世界市场的依附很大亚场的依附很大亚洲经济的动摇难免洲经济的动摇难免会出现牵一发而动会出现牵一发而动全身的状况全身的状况金融大鳄金融大鳄一只假寐的老狼一只假寐的老狼个人价值观趋向个人价值观趋向资本主义国家的默许资本主义国家的默许新中国成立预示着社会主义阵营新中国成立预示着社会主义阵营的建立美国，有了危机感美国，有了危机感他通过强大的经济后盾在亚太地他通过强大的经济后盾在亚太地区建立起一个资本主义的统一战区建立起一个资本主义的统一战线：韩国，日本，台湾直至东南线：韩国，日本，台湾直至东南亚，都成为美国的经济附庸这亚，都成为美国的经济附庸这给亚洲一些国家飞速发展带来了给亚洲一些国家飞速发展带来了经济支持经济支持直接触发因素直接触发因素内在基础性因内在基础性因素素世界经因素世界经因素equilibrium由于国际方面的信贷繁荣和当局放宽对外国资本流入，导致外资流入增加。

通常情况下，资金会找到自己的方式，无论是实体经济的贷款给企业或的非生产性股票和房地产市场 不幸的是，在这段时间的资金流入股市和房地产市场朝向 下表显示了在1997年给予的贷款，物业部门和不良贷款的百分比可以看出，从上述四国受影响最严重的危机也配合他们的尊重银行业的不良贷款率最高可以看出，从上述四国受影响最严重的危机也配合他们的尊重银行业的不良贷款率最高金融危机对这些国家各自的国内生产总值增长的效果财政失衡是指付款余额为负值，一国偿还其债务的能力之间的差异财政失衡是指付款余额为负值，一国偿还其债务的能力之间的差异资料来源：国际货币基金组织资料来源：国际货币基金组织上表显示出口和上表显示出口和经常项目经常项目的恶化 该表显示，而经常该表显示，而经常项目项目赤字居高不下，出口国的赤字居高不下，出口国的同时经历了在其出口收入下滑同时经历了在其出口收入下滑 在韩国和泰国，其出口增长最少，分别只有在韩国和泰国，其出口增长最少，分别只有3.7和和0.5 与此相比的与此相比的30.3和和23.1，分别较上年同期分别较上年同期 因此，这代表了减少出口持因此，这代表了减少出口持续高经常账户赤字财政失衡续高经常账户赤字财政失衡。

换句话说，最终出口收入将不足以支付其经常账户赤换句话说，最终出口收入将不足以支付其经常账户赤字由于在出口的蓬勃发展，有必要的资金，以资助其出口行业和其他经济活动的增加 当时全球金融市场的开放，对外部资金的来源提供了一个完美的途径 然而，最终这些借款将扩大的经常账户赤字当一个国家的经常账户赤字扩大，加上出口下降，由于外国资金的流入，货币高估，它会吸引货币投机者的关注受影响的经济体政府将试图捍卫其货币，无论是通过提高利率或使用其外汇储备货币撑起 当他们提高利率，最终将带来银行业由于增加国外借贷成本 最终会有“逆转资金流动”-从外国资金流入到流出 有了这样的资金流出，将导致信贷紧缩，加上高利率，它最终将影响房地产和银行业reverse flow of funds国际收支危机和银行危机之间的关系更是明显，时下，由于金融业的全球化 下表显示了银行之间的危机和国际收支的频率从上面的表中可以看出，在从上面的表中可以看出，在1980年之前发生的危机更偏于收支平年之前发生的危机更偏于收支平衡 29个个危机的总危机的总额额出只有出只有3个是银行业危机个是银行业危机 然而，自然而，自20世纪世纪80年代以来，银行业金融机构总危机上升到年代以来，银行业金融机构总危机上升到23， 73。

因此，我们因此，我们可以推断出，现今的金融危机可能会可以推断出，现今的金融危机可能会由由结算付款和银行的关系结算付款和银行的关系引起引起Events in 97 Events in 98 Events in 98 CausesDeteriorating（不断恶化的） economic conditionsMoral （道德）Hazards （危害）by banks and corporations（企业）Too much inflow（流入） of foreign fundsStock market and Real Estate（房地产） BubbleLack of regulatory （监管）control on fundsMassive disinvestment（撤资）Speculation?Who are speculators（投机者）?Large International financial institutions, banks and fund managers attacking central banksWhy? They short sale（卖空） currencies and make the central bank run out of foreign reserves. This breaks the equilibrium（平衡） among currencies.George SorosSoros Fund Management (est. 1969)Advises Quantum Group of Funds（量子基金集团） “the Man Who Broke the Bank of England” Blamed for sharp devaluation of southeastern currenciesIf you had invested $1k in 1969, you would have $1 mil 25 years later (32% growth/yr.)In July of 1997, Soros Fund Profits doubled! Speculators Take Actions WhenFinancial markets are ruled by humans emotional reactions than using logical calculation!When a developing country starts to financially liberalize before its institutions or knowledge base is prepared, it opens itself to the possibility of shocks and instability with inflows and outflows of funds!How Did Speculators Take Advantage of Asian Markets?Macroeconomic indicators: Large current account deficits Declining exportsExcessive lending to certain economic sectors Weak banking systems, coupled with inadequate national policies governing the outflow of capital High levels of short-term debtNations Under Speculation Attacks:ThailandMalaysiaHong Kong ($1b=D, $80 b in Fix Rate)PhilippinesChina (Non-Convertible Currency)South KoreaJapanWhat Happened in Thailand?On May 14 & 15, Soros attacked Thai BahtBorrowed and sold Thai baht, receiving US dollars in exchange Financial crises started when Baht was not defendedThe baht fell, speculators needed much less dollars to repay the baht loans, thus making large profitsThai government used US$20 billion of foreign reserves The Central Bank ran out of Foreign ReservesPrevious Financial CrisesWhat happened in East Asia is not peculiar(特殊的), but has already happened to: Many Latin American countries in 1980s Sweden and Norway in the early 1990s Mexico in 1994Southeast Asia in 1997Russia in 1998They faced sudden currency depreciations（贬值） due to speculative attacks or large outflows of fundsIMF History and Background1944 44 governments establish a framework for global economic development.1973 currencies of major powers allowed to float1997 Asian Financial Crisis2008 IMF faces budget shortfall2009 G-20 London members pledge （抵押）to increase supplemental cash to $500B2010 members agree to shift 6% voting shares to developing nations.Currently 187 member nationsIMF and the Asian Financial CrisisImposition of “Fast Track Capitalism”Liberalization of financial sectorsRaise domestic interest rates bolstering bank capitalPeg national currencies to the dollar to protect foreign investors“Conditionalities” and austerity measures inhibit the ability of countries to develop their home economiesEncouraged devaluation of currencies making imports more expensiveBecame known as “Lender of Last Resort.”Interest rates above market average.Criticism of the IMFLargely controlled by developed nations“New Colonialism” austerity 。