需求不确定下响应型供应链系统研究.pdf

中南民族大学硕士学位论文 I摘 要 随着世界经济一体化，企业更倾向于依赖有效的供应链管理来获取竞争优势随着市场竞争日趋激烈，用户需求的个性化、快速变化都对现有供应链提出了新的要求而响应型供应链正是把客户需求的变化看成是正常现象，随时调整自己的目标、计划、运作方式来适应这种需求的变动，这种商业模式顺应了市场发展的趋势，它将成为未来多个行业供应链的发展方向 需求不确定性作为一种商业环境中的普遍现象，挑战着供应链的快速响应能力，给响应型供应链成员的所有经济活动都带来了巨大的负面影响由于很难把握需求，销售商很难制定最得当的订货计划；同样的原因使得制造商很难分配生产能力和制定生产规划，这些都使得消费者期待的完美交付难以实现 文章以响应型供应链系统作为研究对象，首先，通过对比 QR 和 ERC，对响应型供应链的基本概念及其内涵作了详细阐述文章认为供应链的响应性不仅仅局限于交货速度的衡量，应该是从包括响应时间、速度、生产能力、服务水平、管理水平在内的几个大方向去细化评价指标 其次，文章不拘于独立讨论响应型供应链的构建机理，而将其置于需求不确定的环境下进行进一步的研究论文从不确定需求产生的结构性因素着手，将需求不确定性，归结为外部型不确定需求和系统型不确定需求。

深入分析了需求不确定性的产生机理、触发过程以及所产生的危害虽然需求的不确定性是无法从根本上被消除的，但通过分析得知，可以从建立的需求监控策略和优化系统流程着手，来寻求减少不确定需求进入系统和降低其对于系统的负面影响的途径，以提升供应链的快速响应能力 再次，通过调研电子制造业等典型响应要求较高的高新技术企业，文章首先分类总结了当前企业对不确定需求的应对策略，并分别从理论研究和企业实际运作的角度讨论现有策略的不足论文引入 C P F R 模型来解决当前企业的供应管理问题，提出用协同运作将现有的企业应对策略统一到供应链层面上来，通过构建协同预测模型，制定协调计划以及补给策略来调动供应链各个节点企业，以达到快速响应客户的目标文章对原有 C P F R运作框架进行创新和改进：( 1 ) 强调需求导向，增加需求捕获，将供应链上游企业也纳入到需求管理中来，不仅为市场需求提供专业解释，同时也能及时验证需求可行性，很大程度上避免不明确的需求信息进入系统；( 2 ) 增加反馈机制，在各个环节之间设置反馈，反映各环节中不确定性存在的空间被挤压的程度，从而达到持续控制系统风险的目的 3 ) 建立突发事件处理通道，针对突发性需求信息建立此平台，缩短供应链响应事件，实现快速需求不确定下响应型供应链系统研究 II的协同业务。

最后，文章针对响应型供应链企业如何通过改进 C P F R 模型来抵御需求不确定性风险的问题，提出了企业必须建立相应的响应机制作为配合：在需求获取方面，要快速处理常规信息；运用需求调节工具，挖掘潜在需求；逐步实现供应链知识共享在信息共享方面，通过网络实现需求信息透明化，达到信息共享的理想状态在流程优化方面，企业要做好标准、行业、个性流程的配比，在保留核心竞争力的前提下实现流程简化和优化在信任协作上，供应链企业突破简单的合同约束，在战略层面上建立激励和补偿机制文章提出的各项响应机制不仅在理论层面研究响应型供应链内涵，并有助于企业构建供应体系，提升响应速度 只有在供应链各企业达成战略合作伙伴关系的前提下，才能利用先进的信息技术和信息管理系统，启动有效的流程优化机制和需求获取机制来确保实现协同运作的目的，从而有效地规避需求不确定性给供应链系统带来的巨大的负面影响 关键词：响应型供应链 需求不确定 C P F R 响应机制 中南民族大学硕士学位论文 IIIAbstract With economic integration nowadays, enterprises have come to rely on effective management of their supply chains so as to shape their own competitive edge. It proposes a new requirement for supply chains with the sharp market competition and the consumers’ personalized and changeable demand. It is normal for the responsive supply chain to consider the changes of consumers’ demand; this kind of supply chain always adjusts its target, plan and operation to meet the changeable demand. It also complies with the market trend, and will be the developing way of the supply chain in some aeries. As a common phenomenon in business environment, the demand uncertainty always challenges the response ability of the supply chain, it also brings greater negative impact. It is hard for the distributors to make the order exactly while the demand would not be sure, it is the same for the manufacturers to distribute the production capability and make product planning. So it’ s hard to reach the perfect response of the consumer. This paper takes the responsive supply chain for study. First of all, the paper analyzed the concept and connotation of responsive supply chain by contrast with QR and ERC. It also establishes index system, which describe the response ability of the supply chain. The article maintains that the response of the supply chain is not only measured by the speed of delivery, it also should be evaluated by a general direction of several indicators, including the response time, speed, productivity, service quality and management level. Secondly, this paper dose not describes the mechanism of the responsive supply chain independently. The author put the research of the responsive supply chain into a demand uncertainty environment. It makes deeply analyze for mechanism and triggered process of the uncertain demand, also including the serious damage. Although it is impossible for us to eliminate the uncertain demand completely, through the analyses in this paper, it may be controlled by establishing the tactics of demand controlling and optimizing the system process. This ways are helpful to reduce the uncertain demand getting into the system and cut down the negative impact, then the ability of response of supply chain would be improved. Then, with the research on the electronic manufacturing which is typical response to the higher requirements of the high- tech enterprises, the article summed up the 需求不确定下响应型供应链系统研究 IVcurrent business strategy to deal with uncertain demand. By the research of theoretical study and practical operation of the companies, it discussed the inadequacy of existing strategy. This paper would put the tactics of enterprise into the supply chain by using coordination theory. It establishes a cooperation model for the responsive supply chain to achieve quickly response. The model is including three sections: coordinate forecasting, coordinate planning and coordinate supplying. The paper refers the CPFR model, however, it makes some improvements: (1) It gives emphasis to requirement and demand guide, the enterprise on the upstairs of supply chain also could take part in the demand obtaining, it not only could provide some professional explanations to the market, but also could verify the demand feasibility. (2) The improved model has a feedback mechanism. The feedback between each point could control the risk of the system. (3) It established a platform which is spec。