2021年全球经济体第四季度通货膨胀报告（英）.pdf

REPORT ISSUE 28Q4 2021Photo:ESB Professional /ShutterstockECI Media ManagementQ4 2021inflation reportupdate.3.12.14.15.16.37.38Introduction .Global Events&Media Developments.7Global Media Inflation .Regional Trends&Developments.Regional Inflation .Key Markets In Detail .About ECI .Our Product Offering.Contacts .39(Clickable in downloaded version)ContentsPhoto:Ulrike Neumann/iStockE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 2Global .Market.Inflation.Trends.5For many people across the world,it feels like life has returned to at least a version of normal,although the pandemic will inevitably have a long-lasting impact on the global economy and on how we live our lives.Lockdowns and stay-at-home restrictions are hopefully becoming a thing of the past as vaccine rollouts continue at pace,and consumers are slowly regaining the confidence to go out and spend money as economies recover.Media inflation in 2021 has reflected that increase in confidence.Overall media inflation is at 4.0%globally,with offline media reaching 3.5%and online 4.4%.The story is more complex and more interesting as we start to drill down into specific media types.TV has been the big success story of the year,despite the rise in CTV and speculation that the streamers would cause the decline of linear TV.TV inflation is higher than anticipated at the start of the year,and is recovering more quickly than expected as well.We expect it to have recovered to pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year in all regions except Latin America.Online media inflation has been less volatile than offline,and didnt suffer the same dip at the height of the pandemic in 2020.This was in part thanks to the rise of CTV,which must also be held at least partially responsible for the significant deflation TV saw in 2020.2021updateECI inflation reportExecutive summaryPhoto:ESB Professional /ShutterstockE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 3Online Display saw a marked decrease in 2020 in EMEA,but has recovered and inflated in all other regions.Meanwhile,Online Video has inflated across all regions,thanks to that shift to CTV.Interestingly,online is seeing higher levels of inflation globally than offline,but that is because Print is dragging down the overall offline figure;in fact,the offline recovery compared to 2020 is greater than online,albeit from a lower base.The story is of course different across regions and markets,depending on a swathe of factors including government responses to the pandemic,vaccine rollouts and economic health prior to the pandemic.The story also evolves with the changing context.That is why we at ECI Media Management release this update to our annual inflation report;with both consumer behavior and media pricing so entwined with the prevailing economic context and,now,the recovery from the pandemic,it is crucial that marketers have up-to-date information easily available so they can make sound investment decisions,backed by data and reinforced by context.In this update,we explore the effect that the continued Covid-19 recovery is having on media inflation in key markets globally,how the outlook has changed over the course of 2021 and provide some initial thoughts as to what 2022 could look like.Our analysts across the world harness their deep knowledge of the advertising landscape with industry-leading forensic data analysis skills to understand how media inflation has evolved.Our information is derived from a number of sources,including our global network of experts,real client data and agencies.We cross-reference it with data from industry bodies and publications,as well as with agency traders and media vendors,meaning that it holistically reflects the expertise of those with an impact on trading variables.We hope that this update will play a valuable role in your toolkit as you prepare for 2022 and beyond.Executive summaryPhoto:ESB Professional /ShutterstockE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 4Photo:Shutterlk/ShutterstockGlobalmarket inflationInflation rates are forecast to rise world-wide in 2021,with the USA seeing the sharpest increases in the second quar-ter of 2021.This rise in inflation rates contrasts with the downward trend of 2018-2020.This is likely a result of sharp increases to real GDP growth in 2021 compared to 2020,thanks to the easing of lockdown restrictions and the reopening of economies.Although it will continue on a trajectory of overall growth,worldwide real GDP growth is forecast to slow down in 2022.Please see the following page for CDI and GDP inflation graphs.trendsE C I I N F L A T I O N R E P O R T 2 0 2 1,Q 4 P A G E 5Photo:Sean Pavone/ShutterstockReal GDP,%change,year-on-year10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%-15.0%Source:OECD Economic Outlook(https:/www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-outlook_16097408)trendsGlobal market inflationCPI Inflation,%change,year-on-yearWorldG7EU*USAChina*6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%Q2 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