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CONFIDENTIALFrequently Used Template Conceptual Template June 2002 This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside the client organization without prior written approval from McKinsey & Company. 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UPREVISEDTENTATIVEHYPOTHESISILLUSTRATIVECONFIDENTIALVERY PRELIMINARY301HighMediumLow302STICKER AND OTHERS TextTextText303MAPS 304APPENDIX305END OF DOC 306307客户细分应用蓝图——提升主动营销执行力度1860客服系统客服系统营业厅营业厅BOSS系统系统大客户经理大客户经理大客户管理系统大客户管理系统基于客户细分的客户策略、客户信息n客户细分模型经营分析系统n基于客户细分的客户策略分析策划人分析策划人员员经营分析系经营分析系统统一致的客户策略保证主动营销与客一致的客户策略保证主动营销与客户沟通的一致性，提高营销效率与户沟通的一致性，提高营销效率与客户感知价值客户感知价值基于细分的系统交互与整合保证：基于细分的系统交互与整合保证：1、策略直接下达到生产一线、策略直接下达到生产一线2、策略沟通一致性提高、策略沟通一致性提高3、经营分析系统利用率提高、经营分析系统利用率提高根据营销重点修改策略信息与数据传递308实际的问题是，即使有了模型和策略还远远不够实际的问题是，即使有了模型和策略还远远不够我好像是什么都我好像是什么都知道，但却什知道，但却什么都做不了？么都做不了？309二分的决策树310聚类分析的原理基于每个对象在多维（变量）空间彼此之间的距离（常用的是欧氏距离），把彼此距离很近的一些对象聚为一个类。

最终形成类内距离最小化，类间距离最大化311训练完成的一颗简单的决策树 流失 5000 50% 未流失 5000 50% Total 10000 100%在网时长在网时长<=3<=3个月个月 流失 1000 66.7% 未流失 500 33.3% Total 1500 100%3<3<在网时长在网时长<=6<=6个月个月 流失 1500 50% 未流失 1500 50% Total 3000 100%在网时长在网时长>6>6个月个月 流失 2500 45.5% 未流失 3000 55.5% Total 5500 100%呼出次数呼出次数<=15<=15 流失流失 800 80%800 80% 未流失 200 20% Total 1000 100%呼出次数呼出次数>15>15 流失 700 35% 未流失 1300 65% Total 2000 100%根节点根节点叶节点叶节点子子节节点点Lift =80%/50%=1.6Gain =800/5000=16%312语音业务语音业务（包括（包括V V网）网）本地通话本地通话本地被叫（网内外）本地主叫本地本地主叫省内（基本费、长途费）本地主叫省际（基本费、长途费）本地拔打IP（基本费、IP费）省际漫游省际漫游与漫游地通话（主被叫）非漫游地被叫漫游地主叫省际（漫游费、长途费）漫游地拔打IP（漫游费、IP费）省内漫游省内漫游与漫游地通话（主被叫）非漫游地被叫漫游地主叫省内（漫游费、长途费）漫游地主叫省际（漫游费、长途费）漫游地拔打IP（漫游费、IP费）数据业务数据业务短信GPRS彩信梦网其他本报告分析涉及到的移动业务本报告分析涉及到的移动业务资费计划资费计划资费计划资费计划n全球通全球通VIPn全球通全球通资费计划资费计划n神州行神州行大众卡大众卡n神州行神州行n陕西移动陕西移动V网服务与资费计划网服务与资费计划针对针对企业企业客户客户针对针对个人个人客户客户n处于某企业内部的个人用户，无论是全球通、动感地带、神州行用户，只要技术许可，处于某企业内部的个人用户，无论是全球通、动感地带、神州行用户，只要技术许可，并不受到个人目前所享受的套餐限制，都可以加入该企业的并不受到个人目前所享受的套餐限制，都可以加入该企业的V网服务计划，个人话费的网服务计划，个人话费的优惠是个人套餐优惠与优惠是个人套餐优惠与V网优惠的叠加网优惠的叠加314。