Logistics Rate Outlook

2011 Logistics Rate Outlook - Going Up!Volatile oil and diesel prices, capacity shortages, another looming driver crisis, debilitating regulatory uncertainties, and an improving economy have lead industry analysts across all modes to one conclusion: Shippers will have to shoulder some of the burden associated with escalating transportation costs this year.By Patrick Burnson, Executive EditorJanuary 24, 2011 The good news is that an economic recovery is clearly underway, with demand in goods and services keeping pace with the modest predictions Logistics Management presented six months ago in our 2010 mid-year forecast. But many analysts say that the overall economic picture in 2011 will begin with a whimper rather than a roar.For shippers, this means tighter “spend management” when it comes to choosing modes and routing as theyll be called upon to shoulder some of the burden associated with escalating transportation costs this year.In its most recent survey, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) projects a sluggish start. “Projections for real GDP growth remain sub-par through the first quarter of 2011, but accelerate gradually through the forecast period,” says NABE President Richard Wobbekind, who also serves as associate dean of the Leeds School of Business at the University of Colorado. “For next year as a whole, GDP growth is expected to be moderate.” Wobbekind adds that factors restraining growth include ongoing balance sheet restructuring by consumers and businesses, as well as a diminished contribution to GDP growth from inventory restocking and government stimulus. “Confidence in the expansions durability is intact, but NABE panelists remain concerned about high levels of federal debt, a continuing high level of unemployment, increased business regulation, and rising commodity prices,” he says.Due to an uptick in consumer confidence at the end of last year, the NABE panel made modest revisions to its economic growth predictions for 2010 and 2011. Real GDP is now expected to advance 2.7 percent (year-over-year) in 2010, a figure with which economists outside of the NABE panel seem to be comfortable.“While spending throughout the retail industry was varied, it appears that the fourth quarter of 2010 gave us a solid start,” says National Retail Federation (NRF) Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Consumer spending continues to show marked improvement, even though we expect them to proceed with caution.” This cautionary note was also sounded by Chris Christopher, Jr., senior principal economist at IHS Global Insight. “Our worst-case scenario is a double-dip,” says Christopher. “And we dont see that happening. But even our best-case scenario hardly makes consumers want to break out the champagne. It will be a very soft recovery.”Fuel Analysts also agree that key to any economic rebound will be the price of fuel. Derik Andreoli, an energy analyst and doctoral candidate at the University of Washington, says theres deep uncertainty in how energy for power, heat, and mobility will be sourced and paid for. In the meantime, the Obama Administration recently curtailed domestic offshore drilling while global demand for fossil fuels continues to surge.“The potential consequences of failing to plan for the unfolding energy paradigm could be catastrophic,” he says.At the same time, says Andreoli, shippers must address energy-related risks to supply chains and the increasing vulnerability of just-in-time models.“On my radar, the hot topic at the current moment is Chinas diesel shortage and how an increase in demand for diesel imports will affect prices through 2011,” he says. “It is unclear whether the diesel shortage will reverse in the spring.” What shippers need to know, says Andreoli, is that refined oil stocks of Chinas two largest oil companies have fallen for eight consecutive months and diesel stocks fell by double digits in December alone. This means that transportation providers worldwide will be dipping into a common well, while passing on the costs to shippers.Analysts also expect that the crude and diesel markets will remain volatile due to the fact that the recession and the temporary drop in the price of crude caused some investments in transport assets to be put on hold. Meanwhile, in its short-term outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is calling for 2011 crude oil prices to hit $85.17 per barrel, thereby setting a new average.TruckingStifel Nicolaus analyst John Larkin agrees that energy markets will be tight, and trucking fuel prices will continue to rise. “I believe the EIAs estimation on the price of oil is accurate, and if the LTL capacity remains restrained, shippers will have to accept the rate range given,” says Larkin.Larkin is among the many industry insiders who believes that capacity will come under even more pressure in the second quarter of 2011, with rates rising by as much as 4 percent. “With ma