2021年第3季度天然气市场报告（英）-2021

Gas MarketReport Q3-2021including Gas 2021 - Analysis and forecast to 2024 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States IEA association countries:Brazil China India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/This publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to thename of any territory, city or area.Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Source: IEA. All rights reserved.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Gas Market Report Q2-2021Abstract Natural gas markets started off the year with a strong rebound,supported by a combination of recovering economic activity in mostmarkets along with a series of weather-related events cold spellsin Q1 followed by colder or drier than average temperatures in Q2.Rising demand in 2021 is expected to offset 2020s decline andeven grow further with an anticipated 3.6% annual increase.Demand growth is, however, not expected to maintain this pace inthe medium term, but rather to slow to an average 1.7% annual ratefor the 2022-2024 period, equally driven by economic activity andfuel switching from coal and oil. This slower growth may still be toohigh to match a net-zero emissions path, which requires highersubstitution rates and efficiency gains especially in maturemarkets, where most of the switching potential from coal and oil togas has already been realised.This new quarterly report offers a medium-term forecast andanalysis of global gas markets to 2024, as well as a review of recentdevelopments in major regional gas markets during the first half of2021.PAGE | 2 Table of contents Gas Market Report Q3-2021Table of contents Gas 2021: Analysis and forecast to 2024 . 4Overview and key findings . 5Demand . 9Supply . 38Tracking clean gas progress . 48Trade . 61Gas market update and short-term forecast . 75Annex . 99PAGE | 3 Gas 2021: Analysis and forecast to 2024 Gas Market Report Q3-2021Gas 2021: Analysis and forecast to 2024PAGE | 4 Gas 2021: Analysis and forecast to 2024 Gas Market Report Q3-2021economic activity can explain almost two-thirds (270 bcm), while thesubstitution of coal (and oil to a lesser extent) explains the rest (160bcm). Strong natural gas demand growth in 2021 is mostly theresult of the global economic recovery from the Covid-19 crisis.Growth in 2022-2024 is driven in equal proportions by economicactivity and fuel substitution.Overview and key findings Global natural gas demand dropped by 1.9%, or 75 bcm, in 2020because of an exceptionally mild winter in the northern hemisphereand the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. We forecast globaldemand to rebound by 3.6% in 2021. And unless major policychanges to curb global gas consumption are introduced, demand isset to keep growing in the coming years, albeit at a slower pace, toreach nearly 4 300 bcm by 2024, a 7% rise from pre-Covid levels.In spite of this limited medium-term growth, our forecast for globalgas demand in 2024 is above what is called for in the IEAs climate-driven scenarios, notably in the recent special report Net Zero by2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. To get on track f