2021年第4季度天然气市场报告（英）-100页

Gas MarketReport Q4-2021including Global Gas Security Review 2021 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCYThe IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its 30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond. IEA member countries:Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States IEA association countries:Brazil China India Indonesia Morocco Singapore South Africa Thailand Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/This publication and any map included herein arewithout prejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to thename of any territory, city or area.Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Source: IEA. All rights reserved.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract Gas Market Report Q4-2021Abstract Winter 2021/22 opens with record high seasonal gas prices, as thecombination of a strong recovery in demand, extreme weatherevents and unplanned supply outages have led to tighter markets.Such tensions are a reminder that security of supply remains amajor topic for gas markets, only a year after a record drop indemand and oversupplied markets.The succession of market events over the past year furtherillustrates the critical role flexibility plays in ensuring security andcontinuity of supply. Flexible liquefied natural gas trade alongsideother major components of the gas flexibility toolbox such asinterconnectors and storage capacity has been and remainsinstrumental to adjusting to sharp and unexpected demand swings(both up and down). Delivering flexible and yet secure supply islikely to become more complex for systems in transition as theyswitch to low-carbon gas to reach net zero emission objectives.Regulators should therefore adopt a prudent and scalable approachto market design to ensure security of supply in a transitioning gassystem.This new quarterly report includes a review of gas security in light ofrecent supply-related developments, and an analysis of short-termgas market evolution to 2022.PAGE | 2 Table of contents Gas Market Report Q4-2021Storm Uri brought a cold spell to Texas not seen in decades . 23Table of contents driving up electricity and natural gas demand on higher space heating requirements . 24Gas Market Report Q4 2021 including Global Gas Security Review 2021 1Abstract . 2Table of contents . 3Global Gas Security Review 2021 . 6Main findings . 7Review of recent gas security-related events . 9January 2021: Cold spell in Northeast Asia . 10Surge in electricity demand combined with weather-related power generation outages led to rotating power cuts in Texas. 25The natural gas system faced several outages along the supply chain . 26with half of the decline in Texan gas production occurring before the start of the power cuts . 27Upstream underperformance and power cuts put additional stress on the gas system . 28The winter crisis in Northeast Asia led to record high LNG prices and repercussions across Asia . 11Storage withdrawals and optimisation of gas flows could not avoid a short gas system . 29Japan: Local electricity market tightness and global LNG bottlenecks push prices to record levels .