东亚及太平洋经济最新报告-50页

WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE OCTOBER 2021LONG COVID WORLD BANK EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE, OCTOBER 2021Long COVID © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.orgSome rights reserved1 2 3 4 24 23 22 21This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusionsexpressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments theyrepresent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations,and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legalstatus of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The WorldBank, all of which are specifically reserved.Rights and PermissionsThis work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http:/creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, includingfor commercial purposes, under the following conditions:AttributionPlease cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2021. “Long COVID” East Asia and Pacific Economic Update (October),World Bank, Washington, DC. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1799-1. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGOTranslationsIf you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translationwas not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not beliable for any content or error in this translation.AdaptationsIf you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is anadaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of theauthor or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank.Third-party contentThe World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. TheWorld Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the workwill not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If youwish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and toobtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images.All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW,Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrightsworldbank.org.ISBN (electronic): 978-1-4648-1799-1DOI: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1799-1Cover photo: Group of students wearing protective mask to Protect Against COVID-19 by Cavan Images © Getty Images. Used withthe permission of Getty Images. Further permission required for reuse. LONG COVIDContentsExecutive SummaryLong COVIDx1Part I. Recent Developments11What Is Happening to the Economy?What Explains Economic Performance?What Are the Near-Term Economic Risks?What Are the Policy Priorities for Recovery?31011Part II. Growth and InequalityThe Longer-Term Economic RisksFirms and Technology1717192326Households and InequalityPolicies for Equitable GrowthAppendix TablesReferences3134iiiCONTENTS EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC ECONOMIC UPDATE, OCTOBER 2021List of FiguresFigure O.1. China is projected to grow faster than was expected, most other countries slowerFigure O.2. A downturn in economic activity has interrupted the EAP regions uneven recoveryFigure O.3. Employment declined and fewer people will escape povertyFigure O.4. Inequality is rising across multiple dimensionsFigure O.5. COVID-19 continues to hit countries directly and indirectlyFigure O.6. The resurgence of COVID-19 is driven by the Delta variantFigure O.7. Mobility has become less sensitive to disease severity, and economic activity less sensitive toreductions in mobilityFigure O.8. The relatively low level of vaccination and high levels of susceptibility are necessitatingstringent lockdowns and hurting growth in many EAP countries12234456Figure O.9. Delivery drives vaccination, and delays are perceived as major problems