2013年英国金融稳定报告PDF.pdf

Financial Stability ReportNovember 2013 | Issue No.34BANK OF ENGLANDFinancial Stability ReportNovember 2013 | Issue No. 34The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) was established under the Bank of England Act 1998, through amendments made in the Financial Services Act 2012. The legislation establishing the FPC came into force on 1 April 2013. The objectives of the Committee are to exercise its functions with a view to contributing to the achievement by the Bank of England of its Financial Stability Objective and, subject to that, supporting the economic policy of Her Majesty’s Government, including its objectives for growth and employment. The responsibility of the Committee, with regard to the Financial Stability Objective, relates primarily to the identification of, monitoring of, and taking of action to remove or reduce systemic risks with a view to protecting and enhancing the resilience of the UK financial system.The FPC is established as a sub-committee of the Bank of England’s Court of Directors. An interim FPC operated from 2011 until March 2013, holding its first policy meeting in June 2011, with the aim of shadowing as far as possible the future statutory FPC’s macroprudential role. The legislation requires the FPC to prepare and publish a Financial Stability Report twice per calendar year. The Report covers the Committee’s view of the current stability of the UK financial system at the time of preparation of the Report and an assessment of developments that have influenced this view; an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the system and the risks to stability; and the Committee’s view on the outlook for the stability of the UK financial system. The Report also summarises the activities of the Committee over the reporting period and the extent to which policy actions taken have succeeded in meeting the Committee’s objectives.The Committee has a number of duties, as specified under the Bank of England Act 1998. In taking decisions, the Committee is required to set out an explanation of its reasons for deciding to use its powers in the way they are being exercised and why it considers that to be compatible with such duties. Section 5 of this Report sets out the decisions taken by the Committee in the light of its assessment of the outlook for financial stability. The Financial Policy Committee: Mark Carney, Governor Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor responsible for financial stability Andrew Bailey, Deputy Governor responsible for prudential regulation Charles Bean, Deputy Governor responsible for monetary policy Martin Wheatley, Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority Clara Furse Andrew Haldane Donald Kohn Richard Sharp Martin Taylor Charles Roxburgh attends as the Treasury member in a non-voting capacity.This document was delivered to the printers on 26 November 2013 and, unless otherwise stated, uses data available as at 19 November 2013.The Financial Stability Report is available in PDF at www.bankofengland.co.uk.Foreword1Executive summary51Global financial environment72Short-term risks to financial stability16Box 1 The role of US Treasury securities in the global financial system313Medium-term risks to financial stability344Progress on previous macroprudential policy decisions495Prospects for financial stability55Box 2 Leverage ratio: high-level considerations69Annex: Core indicators72Index of charts and tables76Glossary and other information78ContentsExecutive summary5Executive summaryEconomic recovery in the United Kingdom, and in some other advanced economies, has strengthened and UK banks’ capital positions have improved. That has boosted confidence in financial stability, as evident in the Bank’s recent Systemic Risk Survey.But financial stability risks remain, including from the high indebtedness of some sovereigns, corporates and households. These vulnerabilities have been kept in check by low interest rates and other policy interventions. A sharp rise in interest rates, especially if not associated with a strengthening in incomes, could test financial system resilience. There are also signs of a deepening ‘search for yield’ in some markets, which could become a concern if they were to broaden and intensify into a more general mispricing of risk. UK housing market activity is picking up from a low level and inflation in house prices — which is already above historical averages on some metrics — appears to be gaining momentum. At present, activity remains below long-term trends and underwriting standards are materially higher than before the crisis. There is little evidence of an immediate threat to stability. But risks may grow if stronger activity is accompanied by further substantial and rapid increases in house prices and a further build-up in household indebtedness, which is already elevated for some households. These risks would be accentuated if underwriting standards on mortgage lending were to weaken as has been the case in previous house price cy。