IMF组织哈萨克斯坦第四条款磋商报告材料.pdf

2011 International Monetary Fund June 2011 IMF Country Report No. 11/150 April 19, 2010 May 3, 2010 April 20, 2010 March 3, 2010 Republic of Kazakhstan: 2011 Article IV ConsultationStaff Report; Supplement; and Public Information Notice Under Article IV of the IMFs Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. In the context of the 2011 Article IV consultation with the Republic of Kazakhstan, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: The staff report for the 2011 Article IV consultation, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on May 6, 2011, with the officials of the Republic of Kazakhstan on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on June 1, 2011. The views expressed in the staff report are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of the IMF. A staff supplement of June 1, 2011 updating information on recent developments. A Public Information Notice (PIN) summarizing the views of the Executive Board. The document listed below has been or will be separately released. Selected Issues Paper The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund Publication Services 700 19th Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20431 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publicationsimf.org Internet: http://www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN STAFF REPORT FOR THE 2011 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION KEY ISSUES Medium-term prospects. Removing impediments to trade and investment, building healthy financial institutions, and improving governance will help achieve inclusive and broad-based growth. Developing a comprehensive social safety net will complement these efforts. Near-term growth outlook. The economy is recovering faster than anticipated, driven primarily by exports of oil and minerals, as well as public spending. The strong recovery is expected to continue in 2011, with growth becoming more balanced. Recent macroeconomic policies. Consistent with the recommendations of the 2010 Article IV Consultation, the authorities have started a gradual withdrawal of crisis-related stimulus, and the official exchange rate band was abandoned. However, a transparent and comprehensive strategy to resolve banks problem loans has not been implemented, and banks continue to be burdened by a large share of impaired assets. Bank soundness. The authorities new plan to reduce problem assets would benefit from a comprehensive forward-looking assessment of asset quality to determine possible recapitalization needs. Proper valuation and accounting of restructured loans, as well as resolution of tax and legal shortcomings, will be crucial to restoring the health of the system. Inflation pressures. The surge in inflation is mainly driven by rising global food and fuel prices, but planned wage increases also pose risks. Inflation should be closely monitored, and further tightening is likely to be needed. The use of administrative measures to limit price increases should be phased out in favor of targeted assistance to low income groups. Non-oil deficit reduction. A medium-term fiscal framework, with intermediate targets for non-oil deficit reduction, will be helpful. This framework should reflect the optimal balance between the use and saving of oil revenues, and incorporate the enlarged government, including public and quasi-public enterprises. Greater exchange rate flexibility. Increased tenge flexibility would enhance the economys responsiveness to external shocks and improve monetary policy traction. June 1, 2011 2011 ARTICLE IV REPORT REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN 2 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Approved by David Owen and David D. Marston Article IV Consultation discussions were held on April 26May 6, 2011 in Astana and Almaty. Staff Team: A. L. Coronel (head), A. Al-Eyd, and D. Rozhkov (all MCD), N. Raman (SPR), and N. Saker (MCM). D. Owen (MCD reviewer) participated in key meetings. K. Sazanov (OED) joined some discussions. CONTENTS RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK ____________________________________________ 4 A. The Recovery is Gaining Momentum _______________________________________________ 4 B. Significant Challenges Persist ______________________________________________________ 7 C. The Outlook is Broadly Favorable but not Without Risks ______________________________ 9 POLICY PRIORITIES ________________________________________________________________ 11 A. Financial Sector: Resolution of Problem Loans ______________________________________ 11 B. Fiscal Policy: Consolidation and Transparency _______________________________。