J.P. 摩根-亚太地区-股票策略-印尼股票市场指南-2020.1.23-104页

1、Asia Pacific Equity Research 23 January 2020 Indonesia 101 A guide to the Indonesian Equity Market Southeast Asia 2 Macro prudential policies 3 Payment system and Rupiah management 4 Policy Support 5 Organizational Support and 6 Representative offices The members of the Board of Governors are proposed and appointed by the President with the approval of the DPR Each person is appointed for a 5 year term and could be reappointed to the same position for no more than 1 subsequent term A member of t

2、he Board of Governors may not be dismissed during his or her term of office unless the person resigns is convicted of a felony unable to attend in person for a period of 3 three consecutive months without reasonable cause is declared bankrupt or is unable to settle liabilities to creditors or is permanently incapacitated Figure 82 Bank Indonesia organizational chart Source Bank Indonesia 53 Asia Pacific Equity Research 23 January 2020 Rajiv Batra 65 6882 8151 rajiv j batra Monetary policies Acco

3、rding to article 7 of Act No 3 of 2004 concerning Bank Indonesia the central bank s goal is to achieve and maintain the stability of the Rupiah and of prices of goods and services reflected in inflation In order to achieve this goal Bank Indonesia has adopted the inflation targeting framework while adhering to the free floating exchange rate system Bank Indonesia holds powers to conduct monetary policy through the establishment of monetary targets such as money supply or interest rates with the

4、primary goal of keeping inflation at the government prescribed level Figure 83 Indonesia policy rates and headline inflation Source CEIC Data Bank Indonesia At the operational level BI uses several instruments to carry out its monetary policies including setting policy rates open market operations in the Rupiah and FX markets prescribing a minimum reserve requirement and regulating credit financing Bank Indonesia may also apply monetary controls based on Sharia Principles The current policy rate

5、 of Indonesia is 7 day Reverse Repo Rate effective from 19th August 2016 Prior to this the designated policy rate is 1 Month Bank Indonesia Certificates Auction Rate Figure 84 Indonesia policy rates and Fed fund rate Source CEIC Data Bank Indonesia 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 BI rate old BI rate new Headline inflation YoY 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Jun 15 Sep 15 Dec 15 Mar 16 Jun 16 Sep 16 Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18 Sep 18 D

6、ec 18 Mar 19 Jun 19 Sep 19 BI rateFED fund rate upper bound Bank Indonesia s missions Maintain stability of the Rupiah financial system and macro economy Develop digital economy and financial system Strengthen the effectiveness of Bank Indonesia policy and economic financing Develop Islamic economy and finance Strengthen the international role organization human resources governance and information system of Bank Indonesia Source BI website 54 Asia Pacific Equity Research 23 January 2020 Rajiv B

7、atra 65 6882 8151 rajiv j batra Internet economy Indonesia s Internet economy is one of the fastest growing economy in South east Asia with over US 40bn c4 of GDP of estimated market size in 2019 Google and Temasek s e Conomy SEA 2019 report It is largely driven by the Big 4 Tech Unicorns Gojek Tokopedia Traveloka and Bukalapak The three biggest sectors within the digital economy are E Commerce Ride Hailing and Online Travel Agent OTA The sector was first put in the spotlight when Alibaba inject

8、ed US 100m into Tokopedia in September 2014 marking the first big foreign investment in the country s tech ecosystem The government is very supportive of the development of the creative and digital economy with recent appointment of Nadiem Makarim Co Founder and ex CEO of Gojek as Education minister in the 2019 2024 cabinet a big breakthrough for the industry Figure 87 Internet economy GMV and CAGR 2015 25 Source Google Temasek Online payment and e Money usage is rapidly increasing in Indonesia

9、The country s e Money volumes have grown c 3x from 2016 to 2018 value of transactions has grown c 5 5x e Money transaction value was 7 9 compared to purchases on cards in 2018 growing sharply from 1 3 in 2016 Indonesia is the home of GoJek one of ASEAN s leading ride hailing services together with Grab and Tokopedia the largest ecommerce company in ASEAN valuation was reported to be US 7bn The success of Indonesia s Internet unicorns has led to a surge in investment in start ups Cumulative inves

10、tment by VC PE firms since 2012 is approaching US 8bn 8 5 2 76 3 40 11 7 12 16 12 133 2625 27 50 43 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 IndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippinesSingaporeThailandVietnam 201520192025 Largest Internet economy that is still growing at the fastest pace among ASEAN countries Figure 85 Indonesia E money transaction volume m Source Bank Indonesia Figure 86 Indonesia E money transaction value IDR bn Source Bank Indonesia 55 Asia Pacific Equity Research 23 January 2020 Rajiv Batra 65 6882 8151

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