避免制定决策中的隐藏陷阱
避免制定决策中的隐藏陷阱 CAROLINE WANG*12004 Copyright, Caroline WangDecision Making QuestionnairenBy John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard RaiffaDate22004 Copyright, Caroline Wang决定中的种种陷阱 n先入为主的陷阱n维持现状的陷阱n顾惜已支付成本的陷阱n肯定证据的陷阱n框架的陷阱n估计与预测的各种陷阱n过于自信的陷阱n过于审慎的陷阱n追忆的陷阱nThe Hidden Traps in Decision Making by John Hammond, Ralph Keeney, and Howard Raiffa Date32004 Copyright, Caroline Wang管理决策制定中 最常见的陷阱n让问题推动决策n期望决策建议者做出高质量的决策n期望批准过程监督决策的质量Date42004 Copyright, Caroline Wang需要采用一共同的高质量 决策制定的架构n两个通常的误解：n 每一个决策都是独特的n 每一个决策制定者是独特的Date52004 Copyright, Caroline Wang高质量的决策制定n高质量是意愿和能力的产物n意愿：愿意制定高质量的决策n能力：知道如何制定高质量的决策Date62004 Copyright, Caroline Wang定 义n决定 : 资源分配, 时间和金钱n决定者 : 掌握并分配资源的人n决策 :一 組有長遠影響的决定n决策过程 : 选择最好的方案以有 限的资源达到目标Date72004 Copyright, Caroline Wang高质量的管理决策n高质量的决策需要满足两方面 :n 内容高质量n 过程高质量Date82004 Copyright, Caroline Wang高质量的决策制定n内容高质量 GPAn G : 目标 (Goal)n P : 优先级 (Priority)n A : 备选方案 (Alternatives)Date92004 Copyright, Caroline Wang高质量的决策制定n过程高质量 IPOn I : 信息 (Information）n P : 人 (People）n O : 客观推理 (Objective Reasoning )Date102004 Copyright, Caroline Wang管理决策制定的自我评估n内容 过程优先级优先级备选方案备选方案目标目标信息信息人人客观推理客观推理Date112004 Copyright, Caroline Wang养成做高质量决策的习惯n要有简单共同的架构n公开的沟通和背书n要有纪律的不断的实践n熟能生巧Date122004 Copyright, Caroline Wang参考书目n“Smart Choices by John Hammond III, Ralph L. Keenye, and Howard Raiffan“Even swaps: a rational method of making trade-offs” by John Hammond III, Ralph L. Keenye, and Howard Raiffa n“Humble Decision Making” by Amitai Etzioni n“ Interpersonal Barriers to Decision Making” by Chris Argyris n“Can you analyze that problem” and “How to analyze that problem” by Perrin Stryker n“When to trust your gut” by Alden M. Hayashin“The Hidden Traps in Decision Making” by John Hammond III, Ralph L. Keenye, and Howard Raiffan“Results-Based Leadership By Dave Ulrich, Jack Zenger, Norm Smallwoodn“What Leaders Really Do By John P. Kottern“Leadership That Gets Results By Daniel Golemann“Effective Leadership Communications : Its more than Talk by John Baldoni n “What Makes a Leader By Daniel Goleman Date132004 Copyright, Caroline Wang
