麦格理-亚洲-股票策略-准备战斗：从财报季看股市

Please refer to page 7 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website www.macquarie.com/research/disclosures. ASIA Past performance of RfB picks LONG side Source: FactSet, Bloomberg; Macquarie Research, Jan 2018; See Fig 7 for important footnotes Analyst(s) Felix Rusli +852 3922 4283felix.ruslimacquarie.com Jake Lynch +852 3922 3583jake.lynchmacquarie.com26 January 2018 Macquarie Capital Limited Ready for Battle Stocks to watch this earnings season Macquaries Ready for Battle (RfB) highlights some of the highest-conviction bottom up earnings calls from our coverage of nearly 1,000 stocks in Asia. In this quarters report, we highlight 22 stocks where we have differentiated full-year 2017E or 2018E earnings estimates vs consensus, and where we have conviction that consensus is likely to move towards our estimates over the course of the next few weeks. Our objective is to identify stocks where we expect consensus earnings revisions (rather than look backwards on revisions that have already materialised). Earnings: 16 upgrade and 6 downgrade candidates As has been the case in the last six quarters, our earnings conviction ideas list has more earnings upgrade vs downgrade candidates. Of the 22 stocks we highlight in this report, there are 16 stocks where our analysts expect consensus earnings upgrades based on full-year earnings estimates. Notable upgrade candidates are ZTE, COSL, CK Asset and Honda Motors. In contrast, we have 6 stocks where we have conviction that these are likely to suffer consensus earnings downgrades into the year-end; the most notable of these include Hengan and JFE Holdings. Figures 1-4 inside shows key picks for the upcoming earnings season. They list details for each of our highest conviction earnings calls, including the magnitude of earnings differentiation and reasons behind our differentiated estimates. Earnings matter so we are sticking our necks out We continue to emphasise the importance of earnings as the biggest driver of shareholder returns in the long term. Macquaries Quantitative Research team keeps track of share price performance data broken down by earnings revision, multiple expansion, and dividend payment. We believe getting earnings correct is critical. Track-record of our past RfB picks Despite our RfB picks being purely bottom-up driven (without any macro overlay on top to balance the Long and Short side), our RfB picks have a generally strong record. Since we began tracking the RfB in 1Q2013, our analysts hit rate in predicting the direction of earnings has averaged more than 60%. However, we note that stock price moves tend to be asymmetric offering a favourable risk-reward payoff given the differentiation vs consensus. In terms of performance, the LONG side of our picks have outperformed the benchmark in 10 of the last 12 quarters; it slightly underperformed in the most recent quarter (left panel figure). On a Long/Short basis, all of our previously published Ready for Battle picks have generated an average Long/Short performance of 2.3% per quarter (excluding transaction costs). Again, performance was very strong in 2Q2017 but tailed off in 3Q2017. -10.0%-7.5%-5.0%-2.5%0.0%2.5%5.0%7.5%10.0%12.5%15.0%Q1-2013Q2-2013Q3-2013Q4-2013Q1-2014Q2-2014Q3-2014Q4-2014Q1-2015Q2-2015Q3-2015Q1-2016Q2-2016Q3-2016Q4-2016Q1-2017Q2-2017Q3-2017Long side (rel to MSCI AC Asia, LC)Asia ex JP Long side (rel to MXASJ, LC)Macquarie Research Ready for Battle 26 January 2018 2 Stocks to watch this earnings season Macquaries Ready for Battle (RfB) highlights some of the highest-conviction bottom up earnings calls from our coverage universe of nearly 1,000 stocks in Asia. In this quarters report, we highlight 22 stocks where we have differentiated full-year 2017E or 2018E earnings estimates vs consensus, and where we have conviction that consensus is likely to move towards our estimates over the course of the next few weeks. Our objective is to highlight stocks where we expect consensus earnings revisions to occur (rather than look backwards on revisions that have already materialised). On these 22 stocks, our analysts have high conviction that consensus is likely to revise earnings estimates over the course of the next few months. No stock gets into the RfB list unless our covering analysts have high conviction on their differentiated earnings estimates, going into the earnings season. For earnings, we focus on either EPS, Operating Profit or EBITDA, depending upon the key metric that the investor community tends to focus on, for respective stocks. As we are getting closer to the reporting of full year 2017 results, our shortlist for this quarters report is based on both full-year 2017E and 2018E estimates (March 2018/2019 for Indian/Japanese companies). We see the upcoming earnings season as a natural catalyst that will likely trigger these earnings revisions. We expect that stock price