世界经济展望报告（英文）

OECD EconomicOutlookNovember 2022PRELIMINARY VERSION OECDECONOMICOUTLOOK112NOVEMBER 2022PRELIMINARY VERSION This document, as well as any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty overany territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use ofsuch data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements inthe West Bank under the terms of international law.Note by the Republic of TürkiyeThe information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the Island. There is no singleauthority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the Island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish Republic ofNorthern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Türkiyeshall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European UnionThe Republic of Cyprus is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. Theinformation in this document relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.Please cite this publication as:OECD (2022), OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2022 Issue 2: Preliminary version, No. 112, OECD Publishing, Paris,https:/doi.org/10.1787/f6da2159-en.ISBN 978-92-64-90931-1 (print)ISBN 978-92-64-96461-7 (pdf)ISBN 978-92-64-69005-9 (HTML)ISBN 978-92-64-39703-3 (epub)OECD Economic OutlookISSN 0474-5574 (print)ISSN 1609-7408 (online)Photo credits: Cover © Karabin/S.Corrigenda to publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm.© OECD 2022Theuseofthiswork,whetherdigitalorprint,isgovernedbytheTermsandConditionstobefoundathttps:/www.oecd.org/termsandconditions. 3Table of contentsAcknowledgements79Editorial Confronting the Crisis1 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation13Introduction 13152933476467Growth is slowing and financial conditions have tightened Global growth is projected to weaken further with inflation slowing gradually Key risks and vulnerabilities Policy requirements Bibliography Annex 1.A. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections 2 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies69Argentina Australia Austria 707376Belgium Brazil 7982Bulgaria Canada Chile 868993China 96Colombia Costa Rica Croatia 100103106109112115118122125129133136139142146150Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Euro area Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Ireland OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2022 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION © OECD 2022 4 Israel 153156160164167170173176179182185188191194197200203206209212215218221225Italy Japan Korea Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Mexico Netherlands New Zealand Norway Peru Poland Portugal Romania Slovak Republic Slovenia South Africa Spain Sweden Switzerland Türkiye United Kingdom United States FIGURESFigure 1.1. A variety of high-frequency indicators point to a slowdownFigure 1.2. Commodity prices have diverged recentlyFigure 1.3. Retail energy prices have increased much less than wholesale prices, especially in EuropeFigure 1.4. Contributions of supply- and demand-driven inflation to headline inflation in selected OECDeconomiesFigure 1.5. Some factors pushing up inflation prior to the war are now subsidingFigure 1.6. Inflation has become increasingly broad-basedFigure 1.7. Short-term inflation expectations have risen in many economiesFigure 1.8. Labour markets are tight1617182021212223242425262727282930333536Figure 1.9. Real wages are declining in most economiesFigure 1.10. Unemployment and inactivity rates have fallen in most OECD economiesFigure 1.11. Global supply chain pressures have eased but new export orders are decliningFigure 1.12. Terms-of-trade losses have hit incomes in energy importing economies, especially in EuropeFigure 1.13. Financial market volatility has increasedFigure 1.14. Real long-term interest rates have risen sharply in many countriesFigure 1.15. Financial market conditions have tightened significantlyFigure 1.16. Corporate bond yields have risen sharplyFigure 1.17. Global growth is projected to slow and be increasingly imbalanced across regionsFigure 1.18. Current account imbalances are higher than immediately prior to the pand