麦格理-亚洲-股票策略-准备战斗:从财报季看股市
9页1、Please refer to page 7 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website ASIA Past performance of RfB picks LONG side Source: FactSet, Bloomberg; Macquarie Research, Jan 2018; See Fig 7 for important footnotes Analyst(s) Felix Rusli +852 3922 Jake Lynch +852 3922 26 January 2018 Macquarie Capital Limited Ready for Battle Stocks to watch this earnings season Macquaries Ready for Battle (RfB) highlights some of the highest-conviction bottom up earnings calls from our coverag
2、e of nearly 1,000 stocks in Asia. In this quarters report, we highlight 22 stocks where we have differentiated full-year 2017E or 2018E earnings estimates vs consensus, and where we have conviction that consensus is likely to move towards our estimates over the course of the next few weeks. Our objective is to identify stocks where we expect consensus earnings revisions (rather than look backwards on revisions that have already materialised). Earnings: 16 upgrade and 6 downgrade candidates As ha
3、s been the case in the last six quarters, our earnings conviction ideas list has more earnings upgrade vs downgrade candidates. Of the 22 stocks we highlight in this report, there are 16 stocks where our analysts expect consensus earnings upgrades based on full-year earnings estimates. Notable upgrade candidates are ZTE, COSL, CK Asset and Honda Motors. In contrast, we have 6 stocks where we have conviction that these are likely to suffer consensus earnings downgrades into the year-end; the most
4、 notable of these include Hengan and JFE Holdings. Figures 1-4 inside shows key picks for the upcoming earnings season. They list details for each of our highest conviction earnings calls, including the magnitude of earnings differentiation and reasons behind our differentiated estimates. Earnings matter so we are sticking our necks out We continue to emphasise the importance of earnings as the biggest driver of shareholder returns in the long term. Macquaries Quantitative Research team keeps tr
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