长城汽车股份有限公司投资价值分析

密 级： 学校代码：10075 分类号： 学 号：20121627 管理学硕士学位论文 管理学硕士学位论文 长城汽车股份有限公司 投资价值分析 学 位 申 请 人 ： 段秋莲 指 导 教 师 ： 杨桂花 教授 学 位 类 别 ： 管理学硕士 学 科 专 业 ： 会计硕士 授 予 单 位 ： 河北大学 答 辩 日 期： 二一四年六月 Classified Index: CODE:10075 U.D.C: NO: 20121627 A Dissertation for the Degree of MPAcc Analysis on Investment Value of Great Wall Motor Company Limited Candidate: Duan Qiulian Supervisor: Associate Prof. Yang Guihua Academic Degree Applied for: Master of Management Specialty: MPAcc University : Hebei University Date of oral examination : June, 2014 摘 要 I 摘 要 伴随世界经济的不断发展，投资学领域也有段发展历史了，人们的投资理念在渐渐完善中，但是对中国民营汽车行业的投资价值分析的文献还很少。由于中国汽车市场在目前甚至未来很长时间内都是世界汽车市场的主要市场， 中国汽车股也是众多投资者所关注的热点。对此本文将对很多人较为看好的长城汽车股份有限公司进行投资价值分析。 本文所要研究的主要问题就是上市汽车行业公司的投资价值分析， 在分析中首先就介绍了投资价值分析中所涉及的评估方法及如何选择的问题，其中介绍了三种评估方法，即股利现金流量模型、股权现金流量模型和自由现金流量模型，通过综合比较各自的适用范围及优缺点， 本文最终选择了自由现金流量模型作为评估案例企业价值的评估方法；其次在概括了解整体汽车行业发展现状及其中存在的积极因素和消极因素基础上，以长城汽车股份有限公司的研究案例为中心，较为具体的分析它目前的经营现状和财务状况，在财务分析中，运用了纵向和横向的双向对比分析，并且以它的历史数据为依据，对长城汽车公司未来十年的财务经营状况进行了数据预测，然后运用自由现金流量模型的评估思路，不仅对该企业的未来投资价值进行了估值，而且根据估值结果提出了个人的投资建议，希望以此来达到促进投资者更加理性的投资，做合理的投资判断，减少投资风险所带来的损失。 关键词 汽车行业 财务分析 估值分析 投资价值分析 Abstract IIAbstract With the world economy continues to develop, the segment of investment has already have its own history of development, people's investment philosophy are gradually improving, however, the literature about the analysis of the investment value of China's private auto industry are still not that much. As China's auto market in the current or in the future is still the main one in the world's automotive market, Chinese auto stocks are still the attraction for many investors. Therefore this paper will focus on the analysis of the investment value of Great Wall Motor Company Limited which most people are more optimistic with. The main issue to be studied in this paper is to analyze the investment value of automotive industry. In the analysis, this paper first introduced the assessment methods and problems involved in how to choose on the field of investment value analysis. This paper describes three assessment methods, namely the dividend cash flow model, equity cash flow models and models of free cash flow. Through a comprehensive compare of scope of using and their advantages and disadvantages, this paper chose the free cash flow model as a business case evaluation methods to assess the value; followed by an overview of the current situation in the overall development of its positive and negative factors of the automotive industry. This paper made the study of the Great Wall Motor Company Limited as the center, analyzing the more details of its current operating status and financial conditions. In the process of financial analysis, the paper used the vertical and horizontal two-way comparative analysis, and with its historical data as a basis for the next analysis step: Great Wall Motor's financial data to predict the operating conditions in the future ten years. Then using the idea of free cash flow model not only predicts the future value of the investment companies, also suggests personal investment advice according to results of the valuation, hoping to help investors to make a reasonable investment and sharp judgments, also to reduce the risk of loss arising from the investment. Keywords Automotive Industry Financial Analysis Valuation Analysis Investment Value Analysis 目 录 III 目 录 第 1 章 导论.1 1.1 研究目的和意义.1 1.1.1 研究目的.1 1.1.2 研究意义.1 1.2 研究现状.2 1.2.1 国外研究综述.2 1.2.2 国内研究综述.3 1.3 论文的研究内容、研究方法及研究创新点.5 1.3.1 研究的主要内容.5 1.3.2 研究方法概括.6 1.3.3 研究创新点.6 第 2 章 公司投资价值分析框架的构建.7 2.1 公司投资价值基础分析.7 2.1.1 宏观经营环境分析.